Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Magna International Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing how to make money in stocks continue...

I do not own this stock of Magna International Inc. (TSX-MG, NYSE-MGA). I held this company between September 2002 and September 2006 and earned 5% return per year including dividends. When I bought this stock in 2002, I felt I was paying a good price for it. There were some rumors that it might be bought out in 2006, so I sold. Magna is a stock I have tracked for some time. I have always liked Frank Stronach, the entrepreneur who used to run this company.

This company gives their vision as follows: We aim to be our customers' preferred global supplier partner for the automotive industry, by delivering the best value built on innovative products and processes and World Class Manufacturing. We strive to be the employer of choice, an ethical and responsible corporate citizen and a superior long-term investment for our shareholders. This is not bad for a mission statement.

First off, this is a dividend growth company and is classified as consumer discretionary. The dividends are paid in US$ so as a Canadian Investor you will have dividend fluctuate with the currency exchange rate. Dividend have not gone up every year, they have in fact gone down in some years and remain flat in other years.

However, over the longer term, they have gone up with the 5 and 10 year dividend growth at 15.2% and 6.5% per year in US$ and have gone up with the 5 and 10 year dividend growth at 12% and 4.5% per year in CDN$. The last dividend increase was in 2014 and was for 18.8% in US$. In CDN$ the increase between 2013 and 2014 was at 29.8%.

Revenue hit a low point in 2009 and has been increasing since then. Over the last 4 years revenues are up by 19% per year. If you look longer term revenues are up by 8% and 8.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Earnings also hit a low in 2009 with negative earnings. Since earnings have been positive from 2008, the company has grown EPS by 17.4% per year.

Cash flow hit a low point in 2009 also. If you look at progress on Cash Flow per Share, it is up by 45% per year over the past 4 years. So currently this stock is doing well as far as growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow since hitting lows in 2009. All the above is in US$ as this company reports in US$.

For Return on Equity, this company has had this ratio north of 10% since 2009. The 2013 ROE is 15.2% and has a 5 year median of 12.2%. The ROE on Comprehensive Income is at 14.7% with a 5 year median of 12.9%. This suggests that the earnings are of good quality.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 6.68, 9.62 and 12.54. Although this is not far off the corresponding 5 year P/E Ratios in US$, they are a bit lower than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios in CDN$ which are 9.30, 11.58 and 13.79. The current P/E Ratio at 13.72 is based on a stock price of $126.58 and 2014 EPS estimate of $7.94 US$ and $9.23CND$. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is still relatively reasonable although at the top end of the reasonable range.

I get a Graham Price of $99.26. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.74, 0.85 and 1.02. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.28 based on a stock price of $126.58. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.22 and the current P/BV Ratio at 2.67 is some 119% higher. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The current dividend yield is 1.40%. The 5 year median, historical average and historical median dividend yields are 1.93%, 1.94% and 1.77% which are all more than 20% higher than the current dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at the analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price is $117.00 US$ or 135.99 CDN$. This would imply total return of 8.83% with $7.43 from capital gains and 1.40% from dividends.

Zacks issued a Buy ranking recently on this stock, but worried about its dependence on a few customers. The Motley Fool feels that this company will outperform the TSX in 2015. Legacy talks about a number of company's issuing a Neutral rating on this stock. A Neutral rating is a Hold rating.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth stock, but rather expensive. Yes, this company has grown well since 2009 but, so has the stock price grown with the stock price up by 35.6% per year since 2009. See my spreadsheet at mg.htm.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow. This is my last stock to talk about this year and completes my list of stocks.

Magna International is the most diversified global automotive supplier. They design, develop and manufacture technologically advanced automotive systems, assemblies, modules and components, and engineer and assemble complete vehicles, primarily for sale to original equipment manufacturers ("OEMs") of cars and light trucks. Their capabilities include the design, engineering, testing and manufacture of automotive interior systems; seating systems; closure systems; body and chassis systems; vision systems; electronic systems; exterior systems; powertrain systems; roof systems; hybrid and electric vehicles/systems; as well as complete vehicle engineering and assembly. Its web site is here Magna.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Methanex Corp. 2

I do not own this stock of Methanex Corp. (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). I started a spreadsheet in November 2010 as I had read some good reports on the stock at that time. It is also got a solid "C" grade in a 2009 money sense review of stocks. Money Sense rated the top 100 Canadian Dividend Paying stocks. Money Sense was looking for stocks that provided generous income at reasonable prices.

Lately, I am been given a blow by blow account of certain items for all the stock that I cover. I would like to change that a bit and so will be trying out different approached in the next while. However, I do not know how I would change testing of the stock price in a number of areas.

I was looking for a mission statement for this company. I would think that by now every company would have one. So far in some stock I have looked at that has not been true. The best I can get from this company is the following. The company says that their customers trust them to provide methanol through safe, reliable and cost-effective operations. They say that have a responsible Care program to look after the health and safety of employees and that they strive to be a respected and valued corporate citizen.

Outstanding share in 2013 have been increased by 1.79M shares in connection with stock options with a book value of $38.6M. The value of this number of shares at the end of 2013 would be $112.5M. This number of shares would be 1.86% of the total outstanding shares at the end of 2013. This is a rather high number. Most companies I have looked at increase outstanding shares by less than 0.5% for stock options.

This is not an anomaly as the outstanding shares were increased for stock options by 1.62M in 2012. This number of shares was 1.11% of the outstanding shares at the end of 2012. The book value of these shares was $18.8M and the value of this number of shares would be $66.7M at the end of 2012.

There is some insider ownership with the CEO having shares worth around $4.6M, the CFO having shares worth around $1.6M, the chairman having shares worth around $13.9M and a Subsidiary Executive having shares worth around $1M. These are relatively small amounts compared to the total outstanding shares of this company. The chairman's shares are only 0.23% of the company's outstanding shares.

When I look at insider trading I find insider selling at $13.8M and net insider selling at $13.5M with some $0.3 of insider buying. Net Insider selling is at 0.22% of market cap and therefore not a large amount.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 10.28, 13.68 and 18.69. These are a lot higher than the corresponding 10 year ratios of 7.46, 11.20 and 14.79. The problem with looking at past P/E Ratios for this stock is that P/E ratios have in the past been negative (2013's high was -47.98) and been outrageously high because of very low earnings (2009's high P/E was 2035.16). However, I have values on this stock from 1995, and the historical median high and the historical high were at 14.64 and 28.67. (For the historical high the calculation would have gotten rid of anomalies like the P/E Ratio for 2009.)

The current P/E Ratio is 10.65 based on a stock price of $53.85 and 2014 EPS estimate of $4.35 US$ or $5.06 CDN$. The 12 month EPS ending in the third quarter of 2014 was at $4.66 US$ or $5.42 CDN$ so the estimates are realistic. In connection with data I have on P/E Ratios for this stock, I would think that a P/E Ratio of 10.65 says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $49.19. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.81, 1.03 and 1.23. The current P/GP Ratio based on a stock price of $53.85 is 1.09. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.96 and the current P/B Ratio at 2.53 is some 30% higher. The current P/B Ratio is based on a BVPS of $21.26 and a stock price of $53.85. The stock price test suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

The value of this test is that there are no estimates involved. The reason it shows that the stock price is expensive is that the stock price has been increasing far faster than the book value. Book Value has only grown at 1.4% and 8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Stock price has grown by 21.3% and 9.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The 5 year median, the historical average and the historical median dividend yield are 2.45%, 2.98% and 2.26% and are 12%, 27% and 4.5% higher than the current dividend yield of 2.16%. Although it is better that the current dividend yield be higher than the other ones, the median dividend yields are not that much higher than the current dividend yield and this would suggest that the stock price would be relatively reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations they are Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, and Underperform. Since most of the analysts have given a Buy or Strong Buy recommendation, the consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $70.10. This implies a total return of 32.34% with 30.18% from capital gains and 2.16% from dividends.

A recent report in Forbes says that this company hit oversold territory in December at $50.50. It ranks this company high as an interesting investment in a dividend paying stock. In mid-December 2014 Zacks had a bearish view on this stock and other similar stocks. Although Methanex shares are up 80% over the past 12 months, TD Analyst Cherilyn Radbourne thinks there might be more upside to this company.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price to high end of reasonable range. The stock price seems reasonable at a number of levels. However, I think that the high level of stock options being granted could be a problem. See my spreadsheet at mx.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Monday, December 29, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Methanex is the world's largest supplier of methanol to major international markets in North America, Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America. Methanol is an important ingredient in many of the essential industrial and consumer products. Head Office is in Vancouver, B. C. Canada. Its web site is here Methanex.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Methanex Corp.

On my other blog I am today writing Investors and Traders continue...

I do not own this stock of Methanex Corp. (TSX-MX, NASDAQ-MEOH). I started a spreadsheet in November 2010 as I had read some good reports on the stock at that time. It is also got a solid "C" grade in a 2009 money sense review of stocks. Money Sense rated the top 100 Canadian Dividend Paying stocks. Money Sense was looking for stocks that provided generous income at reasonable prices.

This is a dividend growth stock. It pays its dividends in US currency, so for Canadian Investors, they will see the dividend fluctuate all the time according to the fluctuation in currency exchange rates. Dividend growth is fairly good in both US and CDN currencies, but the 10 year growth is much better than the 5 year growth.

The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is at 5.4% and 12.1% per year in US$. The growth in dividends over the past 5 and 10 years is at 2.4% and 10.6% per year in CDN$. However, there is problems with these figures in CDN$ as they assume a constant dividend during each year. The most recent dividend increase was in 2014 and it was for 25% in US$. This increase would be better in CDN$ terms as the US$ to CDN$ exchange rate has gone up. This dividend is higher than recent ones and shows that the company is positive about the future.

First, the outstanding shares have increased by 0.9% and decreased by 2.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Because shares have decreased over the past 10 years, the per share values look better. That is the Revenue per Share growth looks better than the Revenue growth. Because of this the Revenue growth would be more important than the Revenue per Share growth. All the values quoted are in US$ terms.

Also, for this company the Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow tend to be a bit volatile. Because of this we should also be paying more attention to 5 year running average growth than just 5 and 10 years growth. Also, for this company the 5 year growth figures are lower than the 10 years growth figures.

Let me give you some examples. The Revenue growth is at 5.5% and 7.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running average growth over these periods is at 2.6% and 8% per year. The 5 year running averages over the past 5 years is lower because of volatility. The growth in Revenue per Share is at 4.6% and 10.3% per year. The per share values for 5 years is lower because outstanding shares went up and for 10 years is higher as the number of outstanding shares went down.

For EPS the 5 and 10 year growth is at 13.95 and 7.2% per year. However for this company exactly 5 and 10 years ago were not great years. If you look at 5 year running averages the EPS is down by 15% and up by 24.8% per year. Part of the reason the 5 year running averages is down is there was an earnings loss year in 2012.

For cash flow, the growth over the past 5 and 10 years is at 22.8% and 7% per year. The cash flow for exactly 5 years ago was rather lower. If you look at the 5 year running averages, the growth is down by 2.2% and up by 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. This is some volatility in cash flow also.

The other thing to mention is that Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow hit highs in 2007 or 2008 and the company is back to these highs or past then in 2013. For example, Revenue was at $2314 in 2008 and at $3024 in 2013. Revenue is expected to be up more than 7.5% in 2014 to around $3253. If you look at the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter, the Revenue reached $3371 a value some 11.5% higher.

Over the past 5 years the Return on Equity was only above 10% twice, in 2011 and 2013. The ROE for 2013 is at 17.3% and the 5 year median ROE is just 7.2%. The ROE on comprehensive income for was 17.9% in 2013. This would suggest that the quality of earnings was good for 2013. The 5 year median ROE on comprehensive income is low at 6.1%.

A good point about this company is their good Liquidity and Debt Ratios. The thing, especially about Liquidity Ratios, is that a good ratio of current assets to current liabilities can see a company though bad periods or period of volatility. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.15 in 2013 and the Debt Ratio is 1.86 in 2013. Basically what analyst's like to see is these ratios at 1.50 or better. So this company's ratios are quite good.

The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little higher than I would like which would be below 2.00 and 1.00 respectively, but the ratios at 2.16 and 1.16 are fine, if a little high.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Industrial Dividend growth stock. Shareholders have done well recently. The stock hit a low point in 2009 and has been advancing, until just recently, quite well. Total return to date is at 23.86% and 11.49% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. See my spreadsheet at mx.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Tuesday, December 30, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Methanex is the world's largest supplier of methanol to major international markets in North America, Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America. Methanol is an important ingredient in many of the essential industrial and consumer products. Head Office is in Vancouver, B. C. Canada. Its web site is here Methanex.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Stantec Inc.

I do not own this stock of Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). I bought and sold this stock between 2008 and 2011 and did not make any money. It was a non-core holding. With their new policy of dividends, this stock has become more interesting.

Since they started to pay dividends in 2012, they raised the dividend in 2013 by 7.5% and in 2014 by 12.1%. It would seem that they want to become a dividend growth stock. So what we seem to have is a low dividend yield and moderate dividend increases. The current dividend yield is 1.17. However, the 3 year median is 1.16.

The Dividend Payout Ratios are low with the DPR for EPS for 20.5% and CFPS at 13.7%. The DPR for 2015 is expected to be similar with DPR for EPS at 20.1% and for CFPS at 14.8%.

Shareholders have done well over the past 5 and 10 years as the stock has performed well since they have started to pay dividends. The 5 and 10 years total return is at 16.69% and 17.39% per year. The portion of this return attributed to capital gain is 15.87% and 16.97%. The portion of this return attributed to dividends is 0.82% and 0.42%. Dividends are low because they just started to pay them.

The outstanding shares have increased by 0.5% and 2.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Growth in Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow has all been very good. Revenue is up by 10.6% and 17.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 10.1% and 14.36% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

EPS is up by 37.9% and 17% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is up by 10.2% and 15.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Return on Equity has been under 10% twice over the past 10 years and once over the past 5 years. The ROE for 2013 was at 16.4% and the 5 year median value was 15%. The ROE on comprehensive income was higher in 2013, but the 5 year median is a bit lower. The ROE on comprehensive income is 19.8% for 2013 and it has a 5 year median of 12.5%.

The last thing to look at is debt ratios. They are all good. The Liquidity Ratio is 1.78 for 2013 and it has a 5 year median of 1.62. The Debt Ratio is 2.15 for 2013 and it has a 5 year ratio of 2.04. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2013 are 1.87 and 0.87 and their 10 year median values are 1.97 and 0.97.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: new dividend growth stock. This stock is doing quite well. They also just split the stock and this tends to give a stock some bounce. See my spreadsheet at stn.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, December 24, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Stantec, founded in 1954, provides professional consulting services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying, environmental sciences, project management, and project economics for infrastructure and facilities projects. We support public and private sector clients in a diverse range of markets, at every stage, from initial concept and financial feasibility to project completion and beyond. Their services are provided on projects around the world operating out of more than 170 locations in North America and 4 locations internationally. Its web site is here Stantec.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Stantec Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about the 10 Best Canadian Stocks of the past decade continue...

I do not own this stock of Stantec Inc. (TSX-STN, NYSE-STN). I bought and sold this stock between 2008 and 2011 and did not make any money. It was a non-core holding and this is why I sold it. With their new policy of dividends, this stock because more interesting.

In insider trading, there is some $2M of insider selling and net insider selling of $1.8M. This is a small amount relative to the market of this stock. There is a bit of insider buying. There is insider ownership with the CEO owning shares worth around $10.9M and the chairman owning shares worth around $19.8M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.38, 17.66 and 22.95. The 10 year corresponding P/E Ratios are similar at 14.63, 17.21 and 21.63. The current P/E Ratio is at 17.73 based on a stock price of $31.74 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.79. The 2015 P/E Ratio is 15.26 based on a stock price of $31.74 and 2015EPS estimate of $2.08. This suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

The 2014 EPS estimate is certainly reasonable. If you look at the 12 months to the end of the third quarter, the EPS is $1.87. This is higher than the EPS estimate for the year. If you use earnings for the past 12 months the P/E Ratio is 16.97. This also suggests that the current stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of $21.14. The 10 year low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 1.11, 1.38 and 1.63. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.50. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is still relatively reasonable.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.24. The current P/B Ratio is 2.86 based on a stock price of $31.74 and BVPS $11.09. The current P/B Ratio is some 28% higher than the median P/B Ratio. This testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I cannot do any testing on the dividend yield as they have just started to pay dividends. However, I can look at Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 10.83 and the current P/CF Ratio is 13.01 based on a stock price of $31.74 and CFPS 2014 estimate of $2.44. The current P/CF is some 23% higher than the 10 years median P/CF and this suggests that the stock is relatively expensive.

If you look at the CFPS for the 12 month period to the end of the third quarter you get a P/CF Ratio of 13.00 and this is still almost 23% higher than the 10 year median P/CF Ratio. This still suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $38.90. This implies a total return of 23.72% with 1.17% from dividends and 22.56% from capital gains.

According to Benzinga Michael Gaugler of Brean Capital initiated coverage of this stock. Gaugler believes that Stantec will deliver solid earnings growth. Another article talks about a joint venture of Stantec with Atkins.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is reasonable based on P/E Ratio. See my spreadsheet at stn.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, December 23, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Stantec, founded in 1954, provides professional consulting services in planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying, environmental sciences, project management, and project economics for infrastructure and facilities projects. We support public and private sector clients in a diverse range of markets, at every stage, from initial concept and financial feasibility to project completion and beyond. Their services are provided on projects around the world operating out of more than 170 locations in North America and 4 locations internationally. Its web site is here Stantec.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Stella-Jones Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about selling Ensign Energy Services (TSX-ESI) and buying Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL) continue...

I do not own this stock of Stella-Jones Inc. (TSX-SJ, OTC-STLJF). I started a spreadsheet on this stock in mid-2009 because of a favorable report I read on this stock. It was considered to be a dividend growth stock and I am always on the lookout for dividend growth stocks.

Over the past year in insider trading there has been $5.2M of insider selling and $5.2M of net insider selling. There was a bit of insider buying. Insider Marla Eichenbaum, an officer of the company has been selling recently. No one is giving a reason as far as I can see. The problem with selling is that it can be for a lot of reasons which have nothing to do with how a company is doing.

Since I looked at this stock on December 19, 2014 there has been reported $2.9M more of insider selling and this is almost 5% of the outstanding shares. It is a high amount. Selling occurred between $34 and $37 per share. The total net insider selling for the year is almost 9% of outstanding shares. This has got to be a negative.

There is some insider ownership with a Director owning shares worth around $2.1M and the chairman owning shares worth around $0.9M. This insider ownership is a very small percentage of the outstanding shares.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 9.24, 12.87 and 14.73. These are little higher than the corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios of 8.42, 11.30 and 14.04. The current P/E Ratio is 21.72 based on a stock price of $33.45 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.54. The P/E Ratio for 2015 is a little lower at 17.33 based on a stock price of $33.45 and 2015 EPS estimate of $1.93. These testing suggest that the stock price is expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $18.23. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.76, 0.99 and 1.22. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.83 based on a stock price of $33.45. For 2015, I get a Graham price of $20.41. The 2015 P/GP Ratio is 1.64 based on a stock price of $33.45. This testing suggests that the stock is expensive.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.94. The current P/B Ratio is 3.49 based on a BVPS of $9.59 and a stock price of $33.45. The current P/B Ratio is 80% higher than the 10 year median ratio. This testing suggests that the stock is expensive.

The current dividend yield is 0.84%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 1.31%. The historical average dividend yield is 1.95% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.31%. These yields are 36%, 57% and 36% higher than the current dividend yield. This testing suggests that the stock is expensive.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. Consensus is a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $36.30. This implies a total return of 9.36% with 0.84% from dividends and 8.52% from capital gains.

According to The Legacy an insider just sold some shares and TD Securities upgraded their rating from a Buy to an Action Buy recommendation. Peter Hodson, Head of Research at 5i Research says in May of 2014 that this company is one of three top picks.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock is expensive. On a relative basis this stock is rather expensive. I still think that it is a good stock, but now may not be the time to buy it if you are buying for the longer term. See my spreadsheet at sj.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, December 19, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Stella-Jones Inc. is a leading North American producer and marketer of industrial pressure treated wood products, specializing in the production of railway ties and timbers as well as wood poles supplied to electrical utilities and telecommunications companies. The Company also provides treated consumer lumber products and customized services to lumber retailers and wholesalers for outdoor applications. Other products include marine and foundation pilings, construction timbers, highway guardrail posts and treated wood for bridges. It has sales in Canada and US. Its web site is here Stella-Jones.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Mullen Group Ltd. 2

I do not own this stock of Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF). I like to look at recommended small cap dividend paying stock to see if they would be a possible good investment now or in the future. The other thing to mention about this stock is that it recently converted from an income trust and has decreased it dividends. The reduction in dividend brought the Dividend Payout Ratios down to a place that would allow for the company to begin growing dividends again.

When I look at insider trading, I find no insider selling and some $154,000 of insider buying. Insider buying is equal to 0.01% of the stock's market cap. There is some insider ownership with the Chairman and Co-CEO owning share worth around 82.6M and the Co-CEO owning shares worth around $13.6M. Between them they own some 3.8% of the company.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 12.27, 13.85 and 15.73. The 10 year corresponding ratios are similar at 11.38, 14.06 and 16.54. The current P/E Ratio is 17.73 based on a stock price $21.27 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.20. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high.

I get a Graham Price of $16.42. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.89, 1.09 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.30 based on a stock price of $21.27. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable but at the top end of the range.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.89. The current P/B Ratio is 2.13 based on a stock price of $21.27 and BVPS of $9.99. The current P/B Ratio is some 12.7% higher than the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable but at the higher end of the range.

The current dividend yield is 5.64% and the 5 year median dividend yield at 4.44% is some 27% lower. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.

The historical average dividend yield is 5.62% a value just 0.4% lower than the current dividend yield of 5.64%. However, the historical median dividend yield is just 3.61% and this yield is lower than the current dividend yield of 5.64% by 56%. Testing of current dividend yield to historical ones, the stock price comes out cheap to reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations I find only Buy and Hold recommendations. There are 4 Buys and 8 Holds, so the consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $24.70. This implies a total return of 21.77% with 5.64% from Dividends and 16.13% from capital gains.

The Mullen Group Ltd published their 2015 Business Plan. Dividends for January 2015 will not change. According to The Legacy Raymond James lowered its target price from $25.00 to $22.75, recently. And finally, the Motley Fool asks why Mullen is a screaming buy.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend yield says price is cheap to reasonable. The reason I like using the dividend yield to judge the stock price is because you are not dealing with estimates. See my spreadsheet at mtl.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, December 17, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Mullen Group Ltd. is a corporation that owns a network of independently operated businesses. Mullen is recognized as the largest provider of specialized transportation and related services to the oil and natural gas industry in Western Canada and is one of the leading suppliers of trucking and logistics services in Canada - two sectors of the economy in which Mullen has strong business relationships and industry leadership. Its web site is here Mullen Group.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Mullen Group Ltd.

On my other blog I am today writing about Dividend Yields continue...

I do not own this stock of Mullen Group Ltd. (TSX-MTL, OTC- MLLGF). I like to look at recommended small cap dividend paying stock to see if they would be a possible good investment now or in the future. The other thing to mention about this stock is that it recently converted from an income trust and has decreased it dividends. The reduction in dividend brought the Dividend Payout Ratios down to a place that would allow for the company to begin growing dividends again.

When they became a corporation 2009, dividends dropped some 72%. Since 2011 they have been raising again. The dividend increases over the past 5 and 10 years are at a negative 5.6% and positive 26%. However, if you look at dividend increases over the past 4 years, dividends are up by 24.5%.

They have recently changed from paying quarterly dividends to again paying monthly dividends. Because of the timing of the dividends it appears that dividends went up 35% in 2013 and down 11% in 2014. However, the dividend increased by 20% in 2013. So far there has been no dividend increases in 2014.

The reason for the original decrease in dividends was to have proper Dividend Payout Ratios. The 5 year median DPR for EPS is at 61% and for CFPS is at 33%. The ones for 2013 were higher at 86% for EPS and 54% for CFPS. They are expected to be at 100% and 47% respectively in 2014 and then dropping to 83% and 41% in 2015.

Shareholders have done well with the 5 and 10 years total return at 10.65% and 8.90% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 5.25% and 6.40% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gain is at 5.40% and 2.50% per year.

Outstanding Shares have increased by 2.4% and 7.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues and Stock Options and have decreased due to Buy Backs. Because of the increase in outstanding shares, if I were a shareholder I would be interested in per shares.

Revenues over the past 5 years have had no to little growth, but there has been moderate to good growth over the past 10 years. The 5 year running averages show moderate growth. There can problems with looking at exact 5 and 10 years growth figures as they may not tell the whole story.

Earnings per Share show the same sort of pattern with little growth over the past 5 years and moderate growth over the past 10 years. However, if you look at 5 year running averages, the 5 and 10 years growth is good.

The growth in cash flow is a bit different. The has been moderate to good growth in cash flow, but for the cash flow per share there is no growth over the past 5 years for 5 years exact figures and 5 year running averages. There is moderate to good growth looking at cash flow and cash flow per share and also at 5 year running averages for cash flow per share for the past 10 years.

Revenue has grown at 1.8% and 13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is down by 0.6% per year over the past 5 years, but up by 5.3% per year over the past 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages, Revenue per Share is up by 6.8% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The EPS is up by 2.3% and 7.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at 5 year running averages EPS is up by 8.7% and 8.4% per year over these periods.

Cash flow is down by 1.9% and up by 15.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 4.1% and up by 7.8% over the past 5 and 10 years. If you look at CFPS and 5 year running averages, the cash flow is up by 0.7% and 10.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Return on Equity was been below 10% 4 times in the past 10 years and 2 times in the past 5 years. The ROE for 2013 is quite good at 15.9% and it has a 5 year median value of 15.8%. There is no difference between the net income and the comprehensive income and this suggests that the net income is of good quality.

On good thing to remark on for this stock are the very good debt ratios. This company is a service company to the oil and gas industry and good debt ratios help companies survive the bad times. The Liquidity Ratio is 2.79 and the 5 year median is 2.65. The Debt Ratio is 2.31 and the 5 year median is also at 2.31. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are 1.76 and 0.76 and the 5 year median values are 1.65 and 0.65, respectively.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Oil and Gas Service, Dividend Growth Company. If you do not want to invest in the oil and gas companies, a service company might be worth your while. It gives you some exposure and these sorts of company might be safer bets. See my spreadsheet at mtl.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, December 18, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Mullen Group Ltd. is a corporation that owns a network of independently operated businesses. Mullen is recognized as the largest provider of specialized transportation and related services to the oil and natural gas industry in Western Canada and is one of the leading suppliers of trucking and logistics services in Canada - two sectors of the economy in which Mullen has strong business relationships and industry leadership. Its web site is here Mullen Group.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

FirstService Corp

I do not own this stock of FirstService Corp (TSX-FSV, NASDAQ-FSRV), but I used to. I bought FirstService Corp in 2002. By 2010 the company was underperforming so I sold the stock and kept the preferred shares until the end of the year before selling them too. Preferred shares are not by favorite why of getting dividends.

Interestingly this company started to pay dividends in 2013. Dividends are payable in US$ so dividends will vary with the currency exchange rate. The dividend yield is quite low with the current yield at 0.77% US$. Also there is no sign that the company will increase the dividends. Analysts also do not expect any increase in dividends over the next few years.

The shareholders have done quite well with this stock. The 5 and 10 year total return to date is 24.63% and 9.74% per year. The portion of this total return from capital gains is 23.92% and 9.47% per year. The portion of this total return from dividends is 0.70% and 0.27% per year.

Outstanding shares have grown at 4.1% and 2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue is up moderately to good over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share growth is marginal to moderate over these periods. The company puts out an adjusted EPS figure as well as EPS. The Adjusted EPS shows good growth, but since 2013 was a negative EPS year, there is no growth in EPS.

Cash Flow is negative over the past 5 years and good over the past 10 years. Of course, the Cash Flow per share growth figures is worse because of the growth in outstanding Shares.

Revenue is up by 6.6% and 14.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 2.4% and 12.2% per year over these periods. Adjusted EPS is up by 9.4% and 15.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is down by 1% and up by 10.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. CFPS is down by 4.9% and up by 8.4% per year over these periods. All the above is in US$.

There is no Return on Equity for this stock for 2013 as earnings are negative. However, the comprehensive income is lower than the net income.

As far as debt ratios go, the Liquidity Ratio is low as is the Debt Ratios. They are 1.08 and 1.21. I would rather see then at 1.50 or higher. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are rather high at 5.08 and 4.08. When debt ratios are not good, a company can be vulnerable in bad times.

Because of negative EPS, I cannot get 5 year median Price/Earnings per Share values. However, the historical low, median and high median P/E Ratios look viable and these are 11.14, 15.72 and 20.82. The current P/E Ratio is 64.80 based on a stock price of $60.57 and 2014 EPS estimates of $0.81. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high or expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 5.38. The current P/B Ratio at 8.07 is some 50% higher. This is based on a BVPS of $7.51 and a stock price of $60.57. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high or expensive.

The 10 year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio is 9.95 and the current P/CF Ratio is 12.62 based on a CFPS estimate for 2014 of $4.80 and a stock price of $60.57. The current P/CF Ratio is some 27% higher than the 10 year median P/CF Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is high or expensive.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is currently expensive. See my spreadsheet at fsv.htm.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

This company is a global diversified leader in the rapidly growing real estate services sector, providing services in the following three areas: commercial real estate, residential property management, and property services. This is an international company, having business in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Its web site is here FirstService Corp.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, December 15, 2014

H & R Real Estate Trust 2

On my other blog I am today writing about Warrants continue...

I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC- HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.

When I look at insider trading, I find $4.3M of insider selling and $0.7M of insider buying with net insider selling at $3.6M. Net insider selling is at 0.06% of market cap and so is relatively low. There is some insider ownership with the CEO owing shares worth around $72M and a director owning shares worth around $26.5M.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.18, 15.21 and 17.50. The current P/E Ratio is 14.38 based on 2014 EPS estimate of $1.46 and a stock price of $21.00. The stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

The 5 year low median and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 13.30, 15.21 and 17.03. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 12.73 based on a stock price of $21.00 and 2014 AFFO estimate of $1.65. The stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $27.76. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.06 and 1.30. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.76. The stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I get a 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.55. The current P/B Ratio is 0.90 based on a BVPS value $23.46 and a stock price of $21.00. The current P/B Ratio is some 42% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio. The stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.

I get a 5 year median dividend yield of 5.97% and the current dividend yield of 6.43% is some 7.7% higher. The stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

On an historical basis the dividend yield has been much higher. The historical high dividend yield is 11.35%, the historical average dividend yield is 7.94% and the historical median dividend yield is 6.68%. These dividend yields are higher than the current dividend yield of 6.43%, although the historical median dividend yield is not far at a value of 4% higher. If you use the historical median dividend yield, stock price test suggests that the stock price is reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $25.40. This implies a total return of 27.38% with 20.95% from capital gains and 6.43% from dividends.

Forbes thinks that this company is in oversold territory according to a recent article. According to Sleek Money Scotiabank has just raised their target price from $24.00 to $24.25. The Digital Journal says that HR had solid results for the third quarter of 2014. An article in the Winnipeg Free Press talks about H & R selling off part of their portfolio to Public Sector Pension Investment Board.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap to reasonable. I believe that portfolios should have some Real Estate stock in them. This is a good diversification for any portfolio. What you should expect for real estate stocks, especially REITs is a good dividend yield and increases that are slightly higher than the inflation rate. See my spreadsheet at hr.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, December 12, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate across Canada and US. Its web site is here HR REIT.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Friday, December 12, 2014

H & R Real Estate Trust

I do not own this stock of H & R Real Estate Trust (TSX-HR.UN, OTC- HRUFF). Before I started blogging, I was following a number of REITs and this is one I had followed. It also used to be on a dividend list I followed.

This stock has been a dividend growth stock. However, in 2009 they reduced the dividends in half. The cash flow retained from the reduced distribution was used to finance construction of The Bow, an H&R's development project in Calgary. Since then the dividends have grown at 17% per year, but they are still some 6% lower than the dividend high that occurred in 2008.

This company also did not raise the dividends for 2014. Analysts expect dividends to go up at a minimal amount in both 2015 and 2016. This is basically at the rate of inflation. The dividends are down by 1.3% per year and up by 1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Shareholders have done fine to date, but the 5 year total return is much better than the 10 years total return. The 5 and 10 year total returns are at 12.64% and 7.02% per year, with the distribution portion of this total return at 6.31% and 6.01% per year and the capital gains portion of this total return at 6.33% and 1.01% per year.

The outstanding shares have grown a lot over the years. The 5 and 10 year growth in shares is at 14% and 12% per year. Shares have increased due to Debenture Conversion, DRIP, Share Issues and Stock Options. While there has been good growth in Revenues but there is mediocre to no growth in per share values. For cash flow, there has been moderate to good growth in per share values as well as good growth in Cash Flow. If I was a shareholder of this company, it is the per share values I would be most interested in.

Revenues have grown at 13% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share is down by 0.5% and up by 0.8% per year over these periods. Cash Flow has grown at 25% and 21% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Cash Flow per Share has grown at 9.8% and 7.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The stock price hit a low in 2008 with the announcement of the dividend cut. The stock has since recovered.

Since EPS seems to be greatly affected by the change in account to IFRS, it is hard to know what growth in EPS is telling us. However, there are problems in the growth in FFO and AFFO per share values. The FFO per share has grown at 2.7% and 2.3% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts seem to be transitioning over the AFFO values. The AFFO per share values have declined by 1.5% over the past 5. I can only find AFFO values on this stock going back to 2008

We have several Returns on Equity Ratios that we can do. The ROE on net income is just 5.2% and this has a 5 year median of 5.7%. If you want to base it on FFO or AFFO the ROE becomes 7.5% and 6.1%. None of these are very good. However, based on FFO or AFFO, the ROE is above 10% in 3 of the last 5 years.

The debt ratios are fine. The Liquidity Ratio is quite low at 0.49. When this ratio is below 1.00, it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after distributions, this ratio is 2.00. The Debt Ratio is good at 1.86 and the Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high, but ok at 2.17 and 1.17.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth REIT. I know shareholders have done well with this stock. However, I would like to see better growth in Revenue per Share and AFFO per Share. I know that analysts expect good growth in both these values in 2014. The last quarter did see growth in both of these values, but they do not seem to be growing quite at the rate expected.

A portfolio should have some REITs or Real Estate stock for diversification purposes. REITs do provide good yields for a portfolio. See my spreadsheet at hr.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Monday, December 12, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

H&R Real Estate Investment trust is an open-ended real estate investment trust. They have a portfolio of office properties, single-tenant industrial properties, retail properties and development projects. They operate across Canada and US. Its web site is here HR REIT.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

First Capital Realty

I do not own this stock of First Capital Realty (TSX-FCR, OTC- FCRGF). In 2011 a reader asked me to review this real estate stock. Also, the site Canadian Dividend Stock site mentions this company as a top Canadian REIT.

The stock has grown its dividends over the years, but they are inconsistent in their increases and they do not increase the dividend every year. The growth in dividends is at .98% and 1.55% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The reason that the growth over the past 5 years is low is that there were no increases in dividends between 2009 and 2012.

The last dividend increase is for 2.4% in 2014. If you look at dividend growth over the past 3 years to 2014, the growth in dividends is at 1.84%. For Real Estate stocks you want to dividend growth equal to the rate of inflation. The growth in inflation to 2013 is at 1.61% and 1.75% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The growth in inflation for the last 3 years to 2014 is 1.56%.

So in the last 3 years the growth in dividends is at the rate of inflation or better. However, the rate of inflation is higher than dividend growth in the past 5 and 10 years. The thing is that a lot of companies have had a hard time with the most recent recession. So for this company to stop increasing dividends is not surprising.

Shareholders have done well over the past 5 and 10 years. The total returns over these periods are at 11.25% and 10.21% per year. The portion of this total return attributable to dividends is at 5.43% and 5.91% per year over these periods. The portion of this total return attributable to capital gains is at 5.82% and 4.31% per year over these periods.

Outstanding shares have increase by 7.7% and 14% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Convertible Debentures, Stock Options and Share Issues. If I were a shareholder per share values would be most important to me because of high rate of increase in shares.

Revenues and Cash Flows have increased very well over the past 5 and 10 years. However, Revenue per Share and Cash Flows per Share growth has been non-existent to mediocre at best. There is a problem in looking at EPS and Net Income because the change in accounting rules in 2011 has had a big effect on these measures.

Revenues have grown at 8.5% and 14.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 0.8% and 0.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow is up by 7.5% and 14.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow per Share is down by 0.8% and 3.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Unfortunately, the growth in Funds from Operations (FFO) and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) has also been non-existent or mediocre. FFO is down by 0.1% and up by 1.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. AFFO is up by 1.2% and 1.95 per year over the past 5 and 7 years. AFFO is the newest measure for judging how well REITs are doing, but it has not been used for a long a period at present.

The Liquidity Ratios is really low and even if you add in cash flow after dividends, it is still very low. Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 0.55 and adding in cash flow after dividends it is 0.65. If this ratio is below 1.00, it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. It makes a company vulnerable. The other debt ratios are fine.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/AFFO Ratios are 16.45, 17.77 and 19.09. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 18.52 based on AFFO estimate for 2014 of $0.97 and a stock price of $17.96. This stock price test says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.63. This is based on a BVPS of $16.64 and a stock price of $17.96. The current P/B Ratio 1.08 a value some 34% lower. This stock price test says that the stock price is relatively cheap.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 4.95% a value some 3% higher than the current dividend yield of 4.79% based on a dividend of $0.86 and a stock price of $17.96. This stock price test says that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

The historical dividend yields tell a different story. The historical average dividend yield is 7.03% and the historical median dividend yield is 6.02%. These yields are 51% and 20% higher than the current dividend yields. So on a historical basis, the stock price is relatively expensive.

The analysts' recommendations are Buy and Hold. There are more Hold recommendations than Buy recommendations and the consensus recommendations would be a Hold. The 12 month stock price consensus is $20.40. This implies a total return of 18.37% with 4.79% from dividends and 13.59% from capital gains.

According to Forbes this stock is in oversold territory. This is another way of saying a stock is cheap. The site Markets Wired talks about this company closing a branch in Indiana. There is also a News Wire item talking about a new CEO for 2015.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend growth Real Estate stock, cheap to reasonable price. See my spreadsheet at fcr.htm.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

First Capital Realty is Canada's leading owner, developer and operator of supermarket and drugstore anchored neighbourhood and community shopping centers, located predominantly in growing metropolitan areas. Its web site is here First Capital Realty.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Finning International Inc. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about Buy Backs continue...

I do not own this stock of Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF). When I was in the market to buy an industrial stock in this area in 2007, I look at this stock was well as Toromont Industries (TSX-TIH). At the time I liked Toromont better, so that is what I bought.

When I look at insider trading, I find 1.5M of insider buying and 3.8M of insider selling with a net insider selling of $2.3M. On a relative basis this is low as it is only 0.05% of the stock's market cap. There is some insider ownership with Chairman having shares worth around $4.6M, the CEO having shares worth around $0.3M and the CFO having shares worth around $0.4M.

In 2013 outstanding shares worth increased for stock options by 354,000 with a book value of $10.3M. These numbers of shares were worth $9.6M at the end of 2013. The increase in share is reasonable being some 0.21% of the outstanding shares.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.13, 13.17 and 15.20. The 10 year corresponding ratios are higher at 14.14, 18.53 and 21.52. The current P/E Ratio is 12.70 based on a current price of $24.01 and 2014 EPS estimate of 1.89. Also, the P/E Ratio for 2014 is lower at 11.33 based on a current stock price of $24.01 and 2015 EPS estimate of $2.12. All this suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable.

I get a Graham Price of 22.35. The 10 year low, median and high Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.18, 1.45 and 1.62. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.07 based on a stock price of $24.01. The stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively cheap.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.53. The current P/B Ratio is 2.04 a value some 19% lower. This is based on a PBPS of $11.75 and a stock price $24.01. The stock price test suggests that the stock is relatively reasonable. The current P/B Ratio would have to be 20% lower than the 10 year P/B Ratio to be cheap, but the price is certainly getting there.

The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.13% and the current dividend yield at 2.96% is some 39% lower. The current dividend yield is lower than the highest dividend yield in the last 5 years, but it is lower than the median high dividend yield. The stock price test suggests that the stock is at a relatively good price.

The historical average dividend yield is 2.15% and the historical median dividend yield is 1.55%. The current dividend at 2.96% is some 38% and 91% lower than these values. All this suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation is a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $30.60. This implies a total return of 30.40% with 2.96% from dividends and 27.45% from capital gains.

This stock currently has an average recommendation of a Hold from Analysts according to The Legacy. On the other hand, Forbes says that this stock is very oversold. The whole point is to be good stocks when they are cheap. The Rental Equipment Register talks about a new expanded store in Lloydminster, Alberta.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: stock price is cheap to reasonable. The best way to invest is to buy good stocks when they are cheap. The second best is when stocks are reasonably prices. I wonder if this stock will recover to meet the 12 month consensus stock price, but if you are in a stock for the longer term what a stock does in just one year does not matter that much. See my spreadsheet at ftt.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Tuesday, December 09, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

This company sells, rents and provides customer support services for Caterpillar equipment and engines. They cover Canada, UK, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. Its web site is here Finning.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Finning International Inc.

On my other blog I am today writing the Globe and Mail investors Site continue...

I do not own this stock of Finning International Inc. (TSX-FTT, OTC-FINGF). When I was in the market to buy an industrial stock in this area in 2007, I look at this stock was well as Toromont Industries (TSX-TIH). At the time I liked Toromont better, so that is what I bought.

This company has raised their dividend every year since 2002. The 5 and 10 year dividend growth is at 6.8% and 12.75% per year. The last dividend increase occurred in 2014 and was for 16.4%. The current dividend is 2.96% based on a dividend of $0.71 and a stock price of $24.01. The 5 year median dividend yield is 2.13%.

Shareholders have only done well over the past 5 years and not so well over the past 10 years. The total return on this stock is at 10.45% and 5.38% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividend portion of this total return is at 2.89% and 2.17% per year over these periods. The capital gains portion of this total return is at 7.56% and 3.21% per year over these periods.

The stock has been dropping lately ever since August when it reached a high of $33.90. So it has fallen some 29% in the last few months and this is why the total return is current down. The total return to the end of 2013 was at 16.54% and 8.08% per year.

Over the past 5 and 10 years outstanding shares have increased 0% and 1% per year. Shares have increased due to Stock Options and Share Issues and have decreased due to Buy Backs. There has been moderate growth in Revenue, good growth in Earnings and moderate to good growth in cash flow over the past 5 and 10 years.

Revenue is up by 2.4% and 6.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per Share is up by 2.2% and 5.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The EPS is up by 28.7% and 8.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS hit a peak in 2007. They then dropped but have been rising ever since. The growth in EPS using the 5 year running averages come out a lot lower at 3.4% and 6.1% per year mainly because they had a loss year in 2010. The 2010 loss was because of a loss due to discontinued operations.

The cash flow is up by 7.8% and 8.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The cash flow per share has grown at 7.6% and 7.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

The Return on Equity has been below 10% 4 times in the last 10 years and 2 times in the last 5 years. The 2013 ROE is at 18% and the 5 year median ROE is also 18%. The 2013 ROE on comprehensive income is 20.9%. When the ROE on comprehensive income is at or above the ROE on net income, it suggests that the income is of good quality.

The debt ratios tend to be good, especially in the last 5 years. The Liquidity Ratio for 2013 is 2.10 and its 5 year median value is 1.82. The 2013 Debt Ratio is 1.58 and it has a t year median of 1.58. The Leverage Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high but ok at 2.72 and 1.72 for 2013. Their 10 year median values are 2.68 and 1.68.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial stock. See my spreadsheet at ftt.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Wednesday, December 10, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

This company sells, rents and provides customer support services for Caterpillar equipment and engines. They cover Canada, UK, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay. Its web site is here Finning.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Monday, December 8, 2014

If You Want a Good Computer Repair Shop In Toronto

My computer was making funny noises. All it needed was to be cleaned. I keep my windows open all summer and I live downtown, so I do tend to get a lot of dust in my apartment. I took it to 3P Computer At Danforth at 770 Danforth just east of Pape Subway station.

The guy was very thorough and did a diagnostic test. Everything check out fine. I do not know what I would do if my computer stopped. All my contacts, my calendar, my financial data etc is on the computer. So I am pleased with the results. I took it in this morning and it was ready by 5. Great Service.

My computer is in a repair shop

My computer is in a repair shop today, so I do not think I will be doing any post today.

Friday, December 5, 2014

The Keg Royalties Income Fund

I do not own this stock of The Keg Royalties Income Fund (TSX-KEG.UN, OTC-KRIUF). This was a stock suggested by one of my readers. I like dinning at The Keg. I find the food very good. At stock forums I viewed, investors liked this company as it is guaranteed 4% of the sales at Keg restaurants as income to the fund. So I decided to take a look at it.

Let me first off say that this would not be a favorite stock of mine. This is because you cannot properly evaluate this stock. They are 100% dependent on Keg Restaurants Ltd. (KRL) for income and 99.6% of their assets are dependent on KRL, but they no longer publish the financial statements for KRL with the financial statements for this fund.

The fund published the financial statements for KRL between 2006 and 2010, inclusive. During these 5 years KRL had positive earnings in only one year and that was in 2007. The only part of KRL financials that is still published is the revenue for KRL. This is not good enough. This fund is dependent on KRL and I would want to know that they have the ability to pay the royalties to this fund.

The fund has two sources of income, KRL Royalties and interest on a loan to KRL. According to the statements KRL Revenue has 1.9% and 5.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The income to this fund has grown at 12.5% and 9.6%. The main reason for the variance is prior to 2011 the KRL had an interest in the net earnings of their partnership with the fund. This in affect reduced the income to the fund almost in half.

Now the partnership units that KRL has in the fund are treated as a liability. This treatment, in effect lowers the fund's earnings. So if you look at the fund's earnings, they are down by 18.7% and 15.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. None of this is easy to understand and I do not like investing in complicated companies.

The fund is paying out in distributions in 2013, 213% of their earnings. The Dividend Payout Ratio for cash flow is better at 54%. If you look at what the company says is their distributable cash, in 2013 they are paying out 98.9% of distributable cash.

Shareholders have done well over the past 5 and 10 years. Total returns over these periods are at 18.23% and 10.81%. The portion of this total return from distributions is at 8.33% and 7.88%. The portion of this total return from capital gains is at 9.89% and 2.93%.

The debt ratios are good, with the Liquidity Ratio at 1.55 and the Debt Ratio at 1.75 for 2013. Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are a little high at 2.33 and 1.33. The intangible assets are at 84% of the fund market cap. The intangible assets are 72% of the total assets of the fund. (This would basically mean that the market is valuing the intangible assets lower than the fund is.)

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.37, 13.90 and 15.42. The corresponding 10 years values are lower at 9.63, 11.02 and 12.49. The current P/E Ratio based on the 12 months earnings to September 2014 is 32.98. This stock price test says that the stock price is relatively high. On an absolute basis a P/E of 32.98 is high for this sort of stock.

The 5 year median Dividend Yield is 7.72% and the current Dividend Yield at 5.60% is some 27% lower. The current Dividend Yield is some 36% and 63% lower than the historical median and historical average Dividend Yields. By this test this stock is relatively expensive.

There is an interesting Financial Post article from 2013 talking about Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. buying a 51% stake in Keg Restaurants Ltd. . An investment reporter at the Globe and Mail, John Heinzl seems to like to stock. Richard Berger at Seeking Alpha also likes this stock. However, this last report is from early last year.

There is one analyst following this fund and he gives a recommendation a recommendation of a Buy.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Stock price is relatively expensive. Personally, I would not buy this stock as it is too dependent on KRL making money and the financials on KRL are not available. The arrangements with KRL also seem overly complex. The financial show that shareholders of this stock are not getting 4% of the revenue of KRL. It is much more complex than that. See my spreadsheet at keg.htm.

I will have only one entry for this stock as I must do on some stock because I cover too many stocks to do double entries on all that I follow.

Vancouver-based Keg Restaurants Ltd. is the leading operator and franchisor of steakhouse restaurants in Canada and has a substantial presence in select regional markets in the United States. KRL continues to operate The Keg restaurant system and expand that system through the addition of both corporate and franchised Keg steakhouses. Its web site is here Keg Income Fund.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Crescent Point Energy Corp. 2

I do not own this stock of Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX-CPG, OTC-CSCTF). I got this idea to look into this stock from another blogger, My Own Advisor and his November 2012 blog entry on great Canadian dividend paying stocks. I also noticed that several people at the Toronto Money Show of 2013 mentioned this stock.

When I look at insider trading I find $12.3m of insider selling and $2.4M of insider buying, with net insider selling of $9.9M of net insider selling. Net insider selling is just 0.6% of the company's market cap. There is insider ownership with the CEO owns shares worth around $45.8M, the CFO owns shares worth around $8.2M and the Chairman owning shares worth around $23.2M.

When looking at the stock price today, this price is down. Stock price today is $27.84 and I used this as the basis for my report. Also note that because the stock price is down, the dividend yield is higher than I reported on yesterday.

The problem with looking at Price/Earnings Ratios for the last 5 years is that earnings have fluctuated and gone negative over this period. The P/E Ratios for the last 10 years is more viable, with the low, median and high median P/E Ratios at 14.90, 17.98 and 21.06. The current P/E Ratio is 22.82 based on a stock price of $27.84 and 2014 EPS estimate of $1.22. By this stock price test the stock price is relatively high.

I get a Graham Price of $22.94. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.21 based on a stock price of $27.84. The low, median and high median P/GP Ratios are 1.56, 1.79 and 2.02. By this stock price test the stock price is reasonable. However, the GP price has fluctuated greatly also due to the fluctuation on EPS.

The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.86 and the current P/B Ratio is 1.45 based on a BVPS of $19.17 and a stock price of $27.84. The current P/B Ratio is some 22% below the 10 year median P/B Ratio. This stock price test suggests that the stock price is cheap.

The 5 year median Dividend yield is 6.96% and the current Dividend Yield at 9.91% is some 43% lower. Also, if you look at the historical median Dividend Yield at 8.57%, you have a value some 16% lower in the current Dividend Yield. This testing suggests that the stock price is cheap to reasonable.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy recommendation. The 12 month consensus stock price is $46.50. This would imply a total return of 76.94% with 9.91% from dividends and $67.03% from capital gains.

The Motley Fool has an interesting article on why you should not buy a stock just for the dividend. Dividends, no matter how good cannot make up for capital losses. This company is talked about on BNN. The siteTicker Report talks about a recent TD Securities drop in their target price from $48.00 to $46.00.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Price is cheap to reasonable. I think it is a buy because the price of oil is down considerably and oil stocks are probably depressed. However, I think that the 12 month consensus stock price is rather high. I do not see this happening within a year. You could buy this as a bargain, but I think you would have to be patient to see good results in the future. See my spreadsheet at cpg.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Wednesday, December 3, 2014 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Crescent Point Energy Corp. is a Canada-based oil and gas exploration, development and production company. The Company is a conventional oil and gas producer with assets focused in properties consisting of assets light and medium oil and natural gas reserves in Western Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Crescent Point Energy.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Crescent Point Energy Corp.

On my other blog I am today writing about possible cheap dividend stocks for December 2014 continue...

I do not own this stock of Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX-CPG, OTC-CSCTF). I got this idea to look into this stock from another blogger, My Own Advisor and his November 2012 blog entry on great Canadian dividend paying stocks. I also noticed that several people at the Toronto Money Show of 2013 mentioned this stock.

This is another old income trust company. They have not raised their dividends since they changed to a corporation in 2009. They can cover their dividends with cash flow, but not with earnings. The 5 year median Dividend Payout Ratio for EPS is 484% and for CFPS is 66%. The DPR for 2013 for EPS was at 746% and the CFPS was at 54%.

The company did raise dividends while it was an income trust. I do not see it raising dividends anytime soon, but they are probably not going to cut them either. There does not seem to be any analysts saying dividends will but cut. An article at Motley Fool addresses this question.

Their final remarks in the Motley Fool article is: "While it is likely that the company will continue to pay dividends for the foreseeable future, the uncertainty created by the sensitivity of the cash flow and profit to volatile and unpredictable oil prices makes this investment unsuitable for income seeking investors."

The outstanding shares have increased a lot over the past 5 and 10 years. Outstanding shares are up 26% and 34% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to DRIPs, Stock Options and Share Issues. There has been a lot of issuance of shares. This makes the per share valuations quite important.

Revenues and cash flow has been growing but over the past 5 years growth in per share values has not been good. Net Income has grown over the past 10 years, but not over the past 5 years. There has been no growth in EPS over the past 5 and 10 years.

Revenue is up by 24% and 47% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenue per share is down by 1.6% and up by 9.8% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Cash Flow has grown by 28% and 49% per year over the past 5 and 10 years, but CFPS is only up by 1.8% and 11.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.

Net Income is down by 21% and up by 32% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. EPS is down by 2.8% and by 37% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Analysts expect EPS to be at $1.22, an increase of 230% over the $0.37 made in 2012. Certainly, the EPS has been growing this year and the EPS over the 12 month period to September 2014 is $0.90, an increase of 137% over EPS for 2013.

Shareholders have done well over the past 5 and 10 years with total returns at 20.24% and 24.23% per year over these periods. The capital gain portion of this total return was at 10.62% and 11.66% per year. The dividend portion of this total return was at 9.62% and 12.57% per year.

The Return on Equity has been very poor over the past 5 years, with the highest at 3.4% in 2011. The ROE for 2013 was just 1.7%. The ROE on comprehensive income was a bit higher at 2.8%.

The Liquidity is low at just 0.38 for 2013. It has always been low as it has a 5 year median of 0.47. When this ratio is below 1.00 it means that the current assets cannot cover the current liabilities. If you add in cash flow after dividends, this ratio rises to 1.26, still a rather low ratio, but a better one. This means that the company needs cash flow to cover current liabilities. This is a place where this stock is vulnerable.

The Debt Ratio is strong at 3.0. This ratio has always been good and the 5 year median value is 3.36. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios are good also with values of 1.50 and 0.50, respectively.

Sound bit for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend paying oil company. Certainly the dividend is very good at 9.30%. However, you got to wonder about it safety because of the falling oil prices. It is hard to know what the future holds for oil prices. Certainly, they are not going up in the near future. I depend on dividend income, so I would not be buying this stock at present. See my spreadsheet at cpg.htm.

This is the first of two parts. The second part will be posted on Thursday, December 4, 2014 and will be available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price. Hopefully I will post tomorrow. I am having some problems with my computer and might have to take it into a repair shop.

Crescent Point Energy Corp. is a Canada-based oil and gas exploration, development and production company. The Company is a conventional oil and gas producer with assets focused in properties consisting of assets light and medium oil and natural gas reserves in Western Canada and the United States. Its web site is here Crescent Point Energy.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.