On my other blog I am today writing about Selling? Attitude maybe everything...continue...
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-NFC). I first bought this stock in 2005, then more in 2006, 2009, 2010 and a bit more in 2013. My total return is a negative 5.97%, with a capital loss of 8.83% and dividends of 2.86%.
When I look at insider trading, I find a bit of insider buying and a bit of insider selling. There is a net of insider buying at $0.4M. This is so little that it tells no really nothing. Not only do insiders have options, but they have Rights Restricted Share Units, Rights Restricted Share Units and Deferred Share Units. There are a lot of officers with various types of options outstanding.
The CEO has shares worth $1.8M and has options are worth $82M. The CFO has no shares and has options worth $9.3M. An officer has some shares and has options worth $4.2M. A director has shares worth $0.4M and has options worth $0.7M. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 11.79, 22.75 and 33.71. This is wider than normal spread for this ratio. The current P/E Ratio is 12.37. This shows that the stock price is reasonable. My current P/E Ratio is based on a stock price of $15.96 and EPS estimate for 2013 of $1.29.
I get a Graham Price of $19.03 and the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.97, 1.13 and 1.33. The current P/GP Ratio is just 0.84. This test says that the current stock price is cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.71. The current P/B Ratio is 1.28. This current ratio is only 75% of the 10 year median P/B Ratio. When this current P/B Ratio is less than 80% of the 10 year median P/B Ratio, this tests says that the stock price is cheap.
I get a current dividend yield of 3.26%. The 5 year median dividend yield is 4% higher at 3.39%. What you want is a current dividend yield greater than the 5 year median dividend yield. However, the two yields are quite close so that this test says that the stock price is reasonable. (Part of the reason for the low dividend yield is the dividend decrease that occurred in 2009.)
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations, with the most recommendations being in the Buy category and the consensus recommendations would be a Buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $17.60. This implies a total return of 7.89%, with 3.26% from dividends and 4.64% from capital gains. (This is certainly not a great return, but it is acceptable.)
There are still analysts that think that this stock is a good long term buy. Interest rates cannot stay low forever. (However, things like low interest rates can last a lot longer than anyone images.) Other analysts talk about this stock doing ok considering the problem that insurance companies have with low interest rates. People still feel that this company is a good solid blue chip company and this is my feeling. Low interest rates will eventual end, we just do not know when at present.
The Wall Street Cheat Sheet website talks about the high pay of the CEO of Manulife for 2012. The Insider Monkey website remarks on the fact that some hedge funds have sold their shares in this company. The MEPB Financial website talks about this stock being in the top 10 investments of a number of mutual funds listed as the top 10 Mutual Funds for 2013.
I will be retaining the shares I have. My stock tests show that the stock price on this stock is from cheap to reasonable. It is in this price range for a reason. It probably will not do much besides pay a dividend until interest rates start to rise. So it will be a while before there will be much in the way of capital gains. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Manulife Financial Corp
I own this stock of Manulife Financial Corp (TSX-MFC, NYSE-NFC). I first bought this stock in 2005, then more in 2006, 2009, 2010 and a bit more in 2013. My total return is a negative 5.97%, with a capital loss of 8.83% and dividends of 2.86%. Not a good showing, but this is an insurance company and they all are having difficulties.
This company did what few insurance companies have done and that is that it cut its dividends. At the time, the dividend cut was a 50%, but that was just after a rise in dividends so it was more like 46%. Still a big cut for dividends. This was in 2009 and dividends have been flat ever since.
Last year for 2012, was the first year since the dividend cut that the Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings was in a decent range. The DPR for 2012 was 59%. Still this is higher than the historical norm for this stock which has a DPR for earnings in the mid-20% range. The DPR for cash flow has remained fine and the 5 year median DPR for cash flow is 11%.
Over the past 5 and 10 years, outstanding shares have increased by 4% and 7% per year, respectively. Outside of cash flow, this is this is the only growth. Revenue, Earnings and book value are all down, as is the stock price.
Cash flow is up 7.3% and 10.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running growth in cash flow is better, with growth at 8.6% and 17.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Return on Equity has been lousy since 2008, with the ROE for 2012 at 6.5% and the ROE on comprehensive income lower at 5.3%. The ROE for the first 12 months is worse at just 3.9%.
The Debt Ratio for this stock is in line with financial institutions which are always low. The Debt Ratio for 2012 was 1.06 and the current one is 1.05. Both of these are lower than the 5 and 10 years median Debt Ratios of 1.07 and 1.08.
I will continue to hold my shares and collect my dividends. I cannot image much in the way of progress until interest rates improve. Insurance companies are also vulnerable to stock market changes and we are in a secular bear market. I do not really expect much to happen for a while yet. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. Second part will be Thursday at shown here.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This company did what few insurance companies have done and that is that it cut its dividends. At the time, the dividend cut was a 50%, but that was just after a rise in dividends so it was more like 46%. Still a big cut for dividends. This was in 2009 and dividends have been flat ever since.
Last year for 2012, was the first year since the dividend cut that the Dividend Payout Ratio for earnings was in a decent range. The DPR for 2012 was 59%. Still this is higher than the historical norm for this stock which has a DPR for earnings in the mid-20% range. The DPR for cash flow has remained fine and the 5 year median DPR for cash flow is 11%.
Over the past 5 and 10 years, outstanding shares have increased by 4% and 7% per year, respectively. Outside of cash flow, this is this is the only growth. Revenue, Earnings and book value are all down, as is the stock price.
Cash flow is up 7.3% and 10.7% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The 5 year running growth in cash flow is better, with growth at 8.6% and 17.6% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Return on Equity has been lousy since 2008, with the ROE for 2012 at 6.5% and the ROE on comprehensive income lower at 5.3%. The ROE for the first 12 months is worse at just 3.9%.
The Debt Ratio for this stock is in line with financial institutions which are always low. The Debt Ratio for 2012 was 1.06 and the current one is 1.05. Both of these are lower than the 5 and 10 years median Debt Ratios of 1.07 and 1.08.
I will continue to hold my shares and collect my dividends. I cannot image much in the way of progress until interest rates improve. Insurance companies are also vulnerable to stock market changes and we are in a secular bear market. I do not really expect much to happen for a while yet. See my spreadsheet at mfc.htm.
This is the first of two parts. Second part will be Thursday at shown here.
This is a life insurance company in the financial services business. It offers financial protection products (e.g. Life Insurance) and wealth management services (i.e. segregated funds, mutual funds and pension products). They sell products to individuals and business. Its web site is here Manulife.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Pembina Pipelines Corp 2
It was 5 years ago today that I started this blog.
On my other blog I am today writing about Who will pay for the Boomers?...continue...
I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). I first bought this company in 2001 and bought some more in 2009. I have a total return of 18.67%, with 10.59% from capital gains and 8.08%. This is the second part of a two parts entry. First part was Friday and is shown here
When I look at insider trading, I find insider buying at $0.36M and net insider buying at $0.3M with very minor insider selling. These are very small amounts and tell us nothing. Insiders have options and rights and some have convertible debentures.
The CEO has shares worth $16.4M and has rights are worth $7.9M. The CFO has shares worth $7.9M and has rights worth $3.8M. An officer has some shares and has rights worth $0.5M. A director has shares worth $1.7M and has rights worth $0.3M. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 14.65, 17.14 and 19.64. Earnings have not been good lately and the P/E Ratios has been climbing over the past two years. However, the current P/E at 33.80 is rather high, especially for a utility stock.
I get a Graham Price of $19.16. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.45 and 1.66. The current P/GP Ratio at 1.82 shows also a rather high current stock price.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.38 and the current ratio is 2.20. The current ratio is some 92% of the 10 year ratio. This shows a current rather reasonable stock price.
I cannot really use the dividend yield test as the dividend yield has been falling since this company changed from an income trust to a corporation. This is to be expected and it was felt that dividend yields would go to a 4 to 5% dividend yield range for old income trusts companies. This is what has happened on this stock as the current dividend yield is 4.64%.
I can look at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratios. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 12.56 and the current ratio is 16.70. The current ratio is some 32% higher than the 10 year median ratio and would suggest a rather high current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a buy. This is the most common analysts' recommendation configuration there is, so there is no surprise here. However, the consensus stock price at $35.40 over the next 12 months shows only a total return of 6.07% with 4.64% from dividends and just 1.43% from capital gains. And this expected total return is after the revision for the good first quarter of 2013.
The Daily Buy and Sell advisor recommends this stock at $30 or below. Even at that price, the P/E would still be rather high at 29.13. Pat McKeough also likes this company. See his comments. He thinks that Provident is a good fit with Pembina. Most analysts seem to feel that the purchase of Provident was a good move for Pembina.
I generally do not sell stocks because they are overpriced, unless they are wildly overpriced. I think that the price on this stock is too high for a buy, but I do not feel that it is wildly overpriced. I am comfortable at present with this stock and will be holding on to what I have. I will not be buying more as I have enough in my portfolio.
I think that my total return on this stock will moderate in the future from what I earned. The easy money has been made and it was made as this stock changed from an income trust to a corporation. Dividend paying stocks tend, over the longer term to have capital gains equal to the dividend increases. The company has said they expect to increase dividends by 3 to 5% in the future. That would see future total returns at around 7.6% to 9.6%. However, since the stock is rather overpriced, the next few years will see lower total returns. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
On my other blog I am today writing about Who will pay for the Boomers?...continue...
I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). I first bought this company in 2001 and bought some more in 2009. I have a total return of 18.67%, with 10.59% from capital gains and 8.08%. This is the second part of a two parts entry. First part was Friday and is shown here
When I look at insider trading, I find insider buying at $0.36M and net insider buying at $0.3M with very minor insider selling. These are very small amounts and tell us nothing. Insiders have options and rights and some have convertible debentures.
The CEO has shares worth $16.4M and has rights are worth $7.9M. The CFO has shares worth $7.9M and has rights worth $3.8M. An officer has some shares and has rights worth $0.5M. A director has shares worth $1.7M and has rights worth $0.3M. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 14.65, 17.14 and 19.64. Earnings have not been good lately and the P/E Ratios has been climbing over the past two years. However, the current P/E at 33.80 is rather high, especially for a utility stock.
I get a Graham Price of $19.16. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.24, 1.45 and 1.66. The current P/GP Ratio at 1.82 shows also a rather high current stock price.
The 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.38 and the current ratio is 2.20. The current ratio is some 92% of the 10 year ratio. This shows a current rather reasonable stock price.
I cannot really use the dividend yield test as the dividend yield has been falling since this company changed from an income trust to a corporation. This is to be expected and it was felt that dividend yields would go to a 4 to 5% dividend yield range for old income trusts companies. This is what has happened on this stock as the current dividend yield is 4.64%.
I can look at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratios. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 12.56 and the current ratio is 16.70. The current ratio is some 32% higher than the 10 year median ratio and would suggest a rather high current stock price.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a buy. This is the most common analysts' recommendation configuration there is, so there is no surprise here. However, the consensus stock price at $35.40 over the next 12 months shows only a total return of 6.07% with 4.64% from dividends and just 1.43% from capital gains. And this expected total return is after the revision for the good first quarter of 2013.
The Daily Buy and Sell advisor recommends this stock at $30 or below. Even at that price, the P/E would still be rather high at 29.13. Pat McKeough also likes this company. See his comments. He thinks that Provident is a good fit with Pembina. Most analysts seem to feel that the purchase of Provident was a good move for Pembina.
I generally do not sell stocks because they are overpriced, unless they are wildly overpriced. I think that the price on this stock is too high for a buy, but I do not feel that it is wildly overpriced. I am comfortable at present with this stock and will be holding on to what I have. I will not be buying more as I have enough in my portfolio.
I think that my total return on this stock will moderate in the future from what I earned. The easy money has been made and it was made as this stock changed from an income trust to a corporation. Dividend paying stocks tend, over the longer term to have capital gains equal to the dividend increases. The company has said they expect to increase dividends by 3 to 5% in the future. That would see future total returns at around 7.6% to 9.6%. However, since the stock is rather overpriced, the next few years will see lower total returns. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Pembina Pipelines Corp
I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp. (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). I first bought this company in 2001 and bought some more in 2009. I have a total return of 18.67%, with 10.59% from capital gains and 8.08%. The current dividend yield is 4.64%. When I bought the stock the dividend yield was 9.7% as it was an income trust.
This is one income trust that did not decrease the dividend when it changed to a corporation. It sort of kept it level from 2009 to 2011 and then had its first increases in 2012. It is certainly a good sign to see a company increase their dividend. Analysts feel that the dividend will continue to rise over the next few years.
The downside is that the Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The 5 year median DPR for earnings is 148% and for cash flow is 100%. The DPR for 2013 is expected to be165% and 82% for earnings and cash flow. These are too high, especially for earnings. The negative aspect of this is a deterioration of book value, which has occurred under the company. However, the Book Value for 2012 increased because of issuance of shares to buy Provident Energy.
The outstanding shares have increased by 17.2% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Debenture Conversions. This will mean that values would increase at a higher right than values per share. That is Revenue will have increased faster than Revenue per Share.
Over the past 5 and 10 years Revenue has increased by 47% and 31% per year, respectively. Over the past 5 and 10 years Revenue per Share has increased by 25% and 17% per year, respectively.
Earnings per Share have not done nearly as good with the 5 year EPS growth down by 4.9% per year, but with the 10 year EPS growth up by 4.7%. However, exactly 5 and 10 years ago were quite good years for EPS and if you look at the 5 year running averages growth, the 5 and 10 years growth come in at very respectable 8% per year.
The 5 and 10 year growth in cash flow is just 2% and 3.3% per year. The 5 year running averages growth is somewhat better at 6.8% and 4.3% per year.
One thing to mention is that the 1st quarter of 2013 was a very good quarter for this company. Analysts have been very busy updating and upping their estimates for revenue, earnings and cash flows.
2012 was not a particularly good year for this stock and the Return on Equity came in at just 5.3%. The ROE on comprehensive income was close coming in at 5%. The 5 year median ROE on net income was at 15.8% and the ROE on comprehensive income was 15.6%.
The Liquidity Ratio has not been very high on this stock and the current ratio is 1.09. If you add in expect cash flow after expected dividend for 2013 you get a ratio of 1.35. It is a better ratio but not that great. The Debt Ratio has been much better and the current one is 2.24. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are quite good at 1.81 and 0.81.
I think that the easy money has been made off of this stock. When income trusts started to change to corporations, it was felt that the dividend yields would all decline by a combination of dividend decreases and stock price increases. On this stock, the dividend yield ended up in the expected 4 to 5% range, but this was done via stock price increases.
On a go forward basis, the dividend yield is basically cut in half. You could probably expect, over the longer term approximately 4% dividend and 4% capital gain for an 8% return. I notice that the consensus stock price over the next 12 months shows only a total return of 6.07% with 4.64% from dividends and just 1.43% from capital gains. And this expected total return is after the revision for the good first quarter of 2013. So, analysts do not expect much in regards to total return for the short term.
So, analysts do not expect much in regards to total return for the short term. This probably is because of the relatively high P/E and P/CF ratios this stock has. However, this is a pipeline company and most pipeline company produce good dividends and solid returns over the longer term. I expect the same from this company. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This is the first of two parts. Second part will be Tuesday at shown here.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is one income trust that did not decrease the dividend when it changed to a corporation. It sort of kept it level from 2009 to 2011 and then had its first increases in 2012. It is certainly a good sign to see a company increase their dividend. Analysts feel that the dividend will continue to rise over the next few years.
The downside is that the Dividend Payout Ratios are too high. The 5 year median DPR for earnings is 148% and for cash flow is 100%. The DPR for 2013 is expected to be165% and 82% for earnings and cash flow. These are too high, especially for earnings. The negative aspect of this is a deterioration of book value, which has occurred under the company. However, the Book Value for 2012 increased because of issuance of shares to buy Provident Energy.
The outstanding shares have increased by 17.2% and 12.1% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to Share Issues, DRIP and Debenture Conversions. This will mean that values would increase at a higher right than values per share. That is Revenue will have increased faster than Revenue per Share.
Over the past 5 and 10 years Revenue has increased by 47% and 31% per year, respectively. Over the past 5 and 10 years Revenue per Share has increased by 25% and 17% per year, respectively.
Earnings per Share have not done nearly as good with the 5 year EPS growth down by 4.9% per year, but with the 10 year EPS growth up by 4.7%. However, exactly 5 and 10 years ago were quite good years for EPS and if you look at the 5 year running averages growth, the 5 and 10 years growth come in at very respectable 8% per year.
The 5 and 10 year growth in cash flow is just 2% and 3.3% per year. The 5 year running averages growth is somewhat better at 6.8% and 4.3% per year.
One thing to mention is that the 1st quarter of 2013 was a very good quarter for this company. Analysts have been very busy updating and upping their estimates for revenue, earnings and cash flows.
2012 was not a particularly good year for this stock and the Return on Equity came in at just 5.3%. The ROE on comprehensive income was close coming in at 5%. The 5 year median ROE on net income was at 15.8% and the ROE on comprehensive income was 15.6%.
The Liquidity Ratio has not been very high on this stock and the current ratio is 1.09. If you add in expect cash flow after expected dividend for 2013 you get a ratio of 1.35. It is a better ratio but not that great. The Debt Ratio has been much better and the current one is 2.24. The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are quite good at 1.81 and 0.81.
I think that the easy money has been made off of this stock. When income trusts started to change to corporations, it was felt that the dividend yields would all decline by a combination of dividend decreases and stock price increases. On this stock, the dividend yield ended up in the expected 4 to 5% range, but this was done via stock price increases.
On a go forward basis, the dividend yield is basically cut in half. You could probably expect, over the longer term approximately 4% dividend and 4% capital gain for an 8% return. I notice that the consensus stock price over the next 12 months shows only a total return of 6.07% with 4.64% from dividends and just 1.43% from capital gains. And this expected total return is after the revision for the good first quarter of 2013. So, analysts do not expect much in regards to total return for the short term.
So, analysts do not expect much in regards to total return for the short term. This probably is because of the relatively high P/E and P/CF ratios this stock has. However, this is a pipeline company and most pipeline company produce good dividends and solid returns over the longer term. I expect the same from this company. See my spreadsheet at ppl.htm.
Pembina transports crude oil and natural gas liquids produced in Western Canada. It owns and operates oil sands pipelines and has a growing presence in midstream and natural gas services sectors. Pembina holds a 50% interest in the Fort Saskatchewan Ethylene Storage Facility. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines.
This is the first of two parts. Second part will be Tuesday at shown here.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc 2
I own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). I first bought this stock in 1989. I sold some of this stock in 2008 as it had grown so much that I felt that I had too much of my portfolio in this one stock. I bought a bit of this stock in 2012 for my Trading Account.
When I look at insider trading, I find a bit of insider selling and a bit of insider buying. The insiders not only have options, but Deferred Share Unit, Restricted Share Units and Performance Share Units.
The CEO has shares worth $1.1M and has options are worth $1.7M. The CFO has shares worth $12M and has options worth $11.7M. An officer has some shares and has options worth $0.2M. Another officer has shares worth $4.9M and has options worth $10.3M. A lot of officers of this company have options. A director has shares worth $0.8M and has options worth $0.7M. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 14.63, 20.50 and 24.93. The current P/E Ratio is 17.6 based on a stock price of $41.85 and 2013 earnings estimate of $2.33. This test shows that the stock price is reasonable and below the median price.
I get a Graham Price of $27.06. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.56, 1.96 and 2.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.55 and this shows that the stock price is rather cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.06 and a current P/B Ratio of 2.99. The current ratio is only 59% of the 10 year Ratio and this shows that the current stock price is quite cheap.
The current dividend yield is 2.20% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.48%. The current yield is some 48% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. This is the most concrete evidence that the stock's price is cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $49.10. This implies a total return of 19.54%, with 2.2% from dividends and 17.34% from capital gains.
Stocks are often cheap for a reason and there are lots of reasons for this stock to be cheap. Read a bit about the corruption scandal that has severely damaged this company atReuters. This company still has a long way to go to recover. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find a bit of insider selling and a bit of insider buying. The insiders not only have options, but Deferred Share Unit, Restricted Share Units and Performance Share Units.
The CEO has shares worth $1.1M and has options are worth $1.7M. The CFO has shares worth $12M and has options worth $11.7M. An officer has some shares and has options worth $0.2M. Another officer has shares worth $4.9M and has options worth $10.3M. A lot of officers of this company have options. A director has shares worth $0.8M and has options worth $0.7M. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 14.63, 20.50 and 24.93. The current P/E Ratio is 17.6 based on a stock price of $41.85 and 2013 earnings estimate of $2.33. This test shows that the stock price is reasonable and below the median price.
I get a Graham Price of $27.06. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.56, 1.96 and 2.38. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.55 and this shows that the stock price is rather cheap.
I get a 10 year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 5.06 and a current P/B Ratio of 2.99. The current ratio is only 59% of the 10 year Ratio and this shows that the current stock price is quite cheap.
The current dividend yield is 2.20% and the 5 year median dividend yield is 1.48%. The current yield is some 48% higher than the 5 year median dividend yield. This is the most concrete evidence that the stock's price is cheap.
When I look at analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendations would be a buy. The 12 month consensus stock price is $49.10. This implies a total return of 19.54%, with 2.2% from dividends and 17.34% from capital gains.
Stocks are often cheap for a reason and there are lots of reasons for this stock to be cheap. Read a bit about the corruption scandal that has severely damaged this company atReuters. This company still has a long way to go to recover. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc
On my other blog I am today writing about Buy and Hold and Dividends...continue...
I own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). I first bought this stock in 1989. I sold some of this stock in 2008 as it had grown so much that I felt that I had too much of my portfolio in this one stock. I had considered selling more of this stock in 2012 because it has a low dividend and I needed more dividends in my Locked-in RRPS. I did still want this stock, so I bought a bit of this stock in 2012 for my Trading Account. In the end I sold another low dividend paying stock of my Locked-in RRSP instead of this one.
On my original purchase of stock in 1989 I have making a dividend yield of 27%. This is after some 15 years. Mostly the dividend increases on this stock have been great and up to 2011 the dividend increases were at 23% and 24% per year over the previous 5 and 10 years.
Over the last two years I have seen some of the lowest dividend increases for this company. Increases were only 4.8% and 4.5% in 2012 and 2013. Most other years dividend increases were 20% plus. The 5 and 10 years dividend increase to 2012 is lower at 18% and 21% per year and I suspect that the 5 and 10 years dividend increases to 2013 will be lower still.
I do not see this changing anytime soon as the Dividend Payout Ratios are currently higher than historical norms for this stock. Historically, the DPR for earnings was in the mid 20% range (although some individual years were higher) and for cash flow was below 20%. The DPR for 2013 is expected to be around 40% for earnings and 27% for cash flow.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0% and 0.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and declined due to share buy backs. The Revenues are up 3.8% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is up by 3.7% and 8.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Earnings per Share is up by 15% and 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (If you look at 5 year running average, the increase over the past 10 years is 18% per year. This is because exactly 10 years ago, the EPS was relatively high for that year.)
Cash Flow per Share is up by 40% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (If you look at the 5 year running average, CFPS is only up 27% over the past 10 years. This is because exactly 10 years ago the CFPS was unusually low.)
Usually the Return on Equity is quite good on this stock with the 5 year median ROE at 25.1% and last year's ROE at 20.6%. The current ROE is still quite good at 14.9%, but not up to what this stock had been producing in the past. On the other hand, the ROE for comprehensive income is better for 2012 than the ROE on net income coming in at 15.1%. (Last year, 2011 the ROE on net income was 20.6%, but the ROE on comprehensive income was lower at 17.6%.) It is preferable to have the ROE on net income and comprehensive income close.
The debt ratios have always been rather low on this stock with the Liquidity Ratio at 0.96 for 2012 and the current one at 0.90. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio for 2012 becomes 1.05 and the current one comes in at 0.99. When the Liquidity Ratio is less than 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. An interesting feature of this stock is the amount of cash it has. Currently, the cash works out to some $6.27 for each share.
The Debt Ratios have also been rather low on this stock, with the Debt Ratio at 1.28 for 2012 and 1.27 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios have always been a bit high on this stock. The current ones are at 4.73 and 3.73, respectively. The 5 year median Ratios are 4.83 and 3.56, respectively.
It is interesting that revenue still went up in 2012, but both earnings and cash flow is down. I think that the stock is recovering, but it is a slow process. It will be a while before this stock is again a dividend growth stock. The company is making money. We are also in difficult economy times. I do think it will recover, maybe not to its former glory, but it should still do well. Currently, I am holding on to my shares. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (TSX-SNC, OTC-SNCAF). I first bought this stock in 1989. I sold some of this stock in 2008 as it had grown so much that I felt that I had too much of my portfolio in this one stock. I had considered selling more of this stock in 2012 because it has a low dividend and I needed more dividends in my Locked-in RRPS. I did still want this stock, so I bought a bit of this stock in 2012 for my Trading Account. In the end I sold another low dividend paying stock of my Locked-in RRSP instead of this one.
On my original purchase of stock in 1989 I have making a dividend yield of 27%. This is after some 15 years. Mostly the dividend increases on this stock have been great and up to 2011 the dividend increases were at 23% and 24% per year over the previous 5 and 10 years.
Over the last two years I have seen some of the lowest dividend increases for this company. Increases were only 4.8% and 4.5% in 2012 and 2013. Most other years dividend increases were 20% plus. The 5 and 10 years dividend increase to 2012 is lower at 18% and 21% per year and I suspect that the 5 and 10 years dividend increases to 2013 will be lower still.
I do not see this changing anytime soon as the Dividend Payout Ratios are currently higher than historical norms for this stock. Historically, the DPR for earnings was in the mid 20% range (although some individual years were higher) and for cash flow was below 20%. The DPR for 2013 is expected to be around 40% for earnings and 27% for cash flow.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0% and 0.4% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Shares have increased due to stock options and declined due to share buy backs. The Revenues are up 3.8% and 9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. The Revenue per Share is up by 3.7% and 8.9% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.
Earnings per Share is up by 15% and 4.5% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (If you look at 5 year running average, the increase over the past 10 years is 18% per year. This is because exactly 10 years ago, the EPS was relatively high for that year.)
Cash Flow per Share is up by 40% and 15% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (If you look at the 5 year running average, CFPS is only up 27% over the past 10 years. This is because exactly 10 years ago the CFPS was unusually low.)
Usually the Return on Equity is quite good on this stock with the 5 year median ROE at 25.1% and last year's ROE at 20.6%. The current ROE is still quite good at 14.9%, but not up to what this stock had been producing in the past. On the other hand, the ROE for comprehensive income is better for 2012 than the ROE on net income coming in at 15.1%. (Last year, 2011 the ROE on net income was 20.6%, but the ROE on comprehensive income was lower at 17.6%.) It is preferable to have the ROE on net income and comprehensive income close.
The debt ratios have always been rather low on this stock with the Liquidity Ratio at 0.96 for 2012 and the current one at 0.90. If you add in cash flow after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio for 2012 becomes 1.05 and the current one comes in at 0.99. When the Liquidity Ratio is less than 1.00, it means that current assets cannot cover current liabilities. An interesting feature of this stock is the amount of cash it has. Currently, the cash works out to some $6.27 for each share.
The Debt Ratios have also been rather low on this stock, with the Debt Ratio at 1.28 for 2012 and 1.27 currently. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios have always been a bit high on this stock. The current ones are at 4.73 and 3.73, respectively. The 5 year median Ratios are 4.83 and 3.56, respectively.
It is interesting that revenue still went up in 2012, but both earnings and cash flow is down. I think that the stock is recovering, but it is a slow process. It will be a while before this stock is again a dividend growth stock. The company is making money. We are also in difficult economy times. I do think it will recover, maybe not to its former glory, but it should still do well. Currently, I am holding on to my shares. See my spreadsheet at snc.htm.
SNC-Lavalin are involved with engineering and construction work around the world, this includes infrastructure and Buildings; infrastructure and construction; power (nuclear, thermal, hydro etc.); chemicals and petroleum; environmental projects; mining and metallurgy projects. They have offices and Canada and around the world, from Algeria to Vietnam, including Australia, Europe, Russia, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, USA. Its web site is here SNC-Lavalin.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd 2
I own this stock of Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN). I first bought this stock in 2007 and then bought some more in 2010. I haven't done well in this stock, but neither has it been a disaster. My total return is 0.29% per year, with a capital loss of 2.72% per year and dividends of 3.01% per year.
When I look at insider trading I find $5M of insider selling and $0.5 of insider buying with $4.5M net insider selling. Selling is by CEO and officers. There seems to be only one officer with options and he seems to have done most of the insider selling at $3.3M. He is the Chief Operating Officer (COO).
The CEO has shares worth $4.3M and has options are worth $18.3M. The CFO has shares worth $0.3M and has options worth $0.4M. An officer has shares worth $2M and has options worth $0.6M. A director has shares worth $0.3M and no options. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 10.51, 21.35 and 27.80. The current P/E Ratio is 21.00 based on stock price of $23.91 and 2013 earnings of $1.14 CND$ ($1.12 US$). On a relative basis, this is a reasonable P/E Ratio. However, an analyst pointed out that it is rather a high P/E Ratio for this company and I think that he is right. It is not a growth company and it has not grown much latterly.
I get a Graham Price of $16.96 and the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.27, 1.52 and 1.78. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.41 and this would show a relatively reasonable price. For value orientated a P/GP of 1.00 is the appropriate time to buy a stock. For growth companies, this is often unattainable. I do not consider this to be a growth company, so really, a P/GP of 1.41 shows that the company is a bit pricey.
The 10 Year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.81 and the current P/B Ratio at 2.13 is some 18% higher. On a relative basis this test shows that the stock price is rather high, but perhaps still reasonable. However, it does show that this stock price is in the high part of the reasonable range.
The 3 year median dividend yield is 2.47%. I am using the last 3 years because this is during the time of the lower dividend payments. The current yield is lower by 5% at 2.34%. Generally, you would want to the dividend yield to be higher than the median dividend yield, but this is close so suggests a relatively reasonable stock price that is a bit higher than the median.
For this stock I also took a look at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 6.99 and the current P/CF Ratio is some 19% higher at 8.34. (It is even worse if you look at the 5 year median P/CF Ratio. The 5 year median P/CF Ratio is 5.48 and the current one is some 52% higher at 8.34.) This shows that the stock is towards the top of the reasonable range or high on a relative basis.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months consensus stock price is $25.11. This implies a total return of 7.36% with 2.34% from dividends and 5.02% from capital gains.
Some analysts feel that the company is being harmed by the economic environment. It certainly is not a good one for a lot of companies. Todd Bunton of Zacks.com gives a negative report on this stock because of the week 4th quarter of 2012. (The first quarter of 2013 was much better.) He also says that the stock valuation is not cheap. On a relative basis, the stock price is reasonable, but at a current 21.00, the P/E is rather high considering the low recent growth in this stock.
Jack Bass of Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio blog. He talks about a better performance for this company in the first quarter of 2013. In the short term, he does not expect great things from the stock. However, over the longer term, starting in 2014, he expects a much stronger performance on this stock. The Octagon blog talks about recent stock price rises for this company.
The analysts' recommendations configuration is the most common and most stocks have this configuration. I think that the price is rather high for this company. I expect it to be a solid performer, but I do not think it is a growth stock. However, its P/E and P/GP Ratios are what you would generally see as reasonable for growth stocks.
In hindsight I also probably paid too much for this stock. However, I think that it could be a solid performer in the future and so, I am holding on to my current stock. A lot has changed since I bought this stock, especially the dividend yield. I bought at a dividend yield of over 7% and it is now around 2.3%. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. The fund operates through its subsidiaries. Five companies control almost 53% of this company. There are also 11M special shares outstanding. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading I find $5M of insider selling and $0.5 of insider buying with $4.5M net insider selling. Selling is by CEO and officers. There seems to be only one officer with options and he seems to have done most of the insider selling at $3.3M. He is the Chief Operating Officer (COO).
The CEO has shares worth $4.3M and has options are worth $18.3M. The CFO has shares worth $0.3M and has options worth $0.4M. An officer has shares worth $2M and has options worth $0.6M. A director has shares worth $0.3M and no options. This is just to give you an idea on insider share ownership and option values.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 10.51, 21.35 and 27.80. The current P/E Ratio is 21.00 based on stock price of $23.91 and 2013 earnings of $1.14 CND$ ($1.12 US$). On a relative basis, this is a reasonable P/E Ratio. However, an analyst pointed out that it is rather a high P/E Ratio for this company and I think that he is right. It is not a growth company and it has not grown much latterly.
I get a Graham Price of $16.96 and the 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.27, 1.52 and 1.78. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.41 and this would show a relatively reasonable price. For value orientated a P/GP of 1.00 is the appropriate time to buy a stock. For growth companies, this is often unattainable. I do not consider this to be a growth company, so really, a P/GP of 1.41 shows that the company is a bit pricey.
The 10 Year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.81 and the current P/B Ratio at 2.13 is some 18% higher. On a relative basis this test shows that the stock price is rather high, but perhaps still reasonable. However, it does show that this stock price is in the high part of the reasonable range.
The 3 year median dividend yield is 2.47%. I am using the last 3 years because this is during the time of the lower dividend payments. The current yield is lower by 5% at 2.34%. Generally, you would want to the dividend yield to be higher than the median dividend yield, but this is close so suggests a relatively reasonable stock price that is a bit higher than the median.
For this stock I also took a look at the Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio. The 10 year median P/CF Ratio is 6.99 and the current P/CF Ratio is some 19% higher at 8.34. (It is even worse if you look at the 5 year median P/CF Ratio. The 5 year median P/CF Ratio is 5.48 and the current one is some 52% higher at 8.34.) This shows that the stock is towards the top of the reasonable range or high on a relative basis.
When I look at the analysts' recommendations I find Strong Buy, Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Buy. The 12 months consensus stock price is $25.11. This implies a total return of 7.36% with 2.34% from dividends and 5.02% from capital gains.
Some analysts feel that the company is being harmed by the economic environment. It certainly is not a good one for a lot of companies. Todd Bunton of Zacks.com gives a negative report on this stock because of the week 4th quarter of 2012. (The first quarter of 2013 was much better.) He also says that the stock valuation is not cheap. On a relative basis, the stock price is reasonable, but at a current 21.00, the P/E is rather high considering the low recent growth in this stock.
Jack Bass of Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio blog. He talks about a better performance for this company in the first quarter of 2013. In the short term, he does not expect great things from the stock. However, over the longer term, starting in 2014, he expects a much stronger performance on this stock. The Octagon blog talks about recent stock price rises for this company.
The analysts' recommendations configuration is the most common and most stocks have this configuration. I think that the price is rather high for this company. I expect it to be a solid performer, but I do not think it is a growth stock. However, its P/E and P/GP Ratios are what you would generally see as reasonable for growth stocks.
In hindsight I also probably paid too much for this stock. However, I think that it could be a solid performer in the future and so, I am holding on to my current stock. A lot has changed since I bought this stock, especially the dividend yield. I bought at a dividend yield of over 7% and it is now around 2.3%. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. The fund operates through its subsidiaries. Five companies control almost 53% of this company. There are also 11M special shares outstanding. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd
On my other blog I am today writing about how Money is Freedom...continue...
I own this stock of Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN). I first bought this stock in 2007 and then bought some more in 2010. I haven't done well in this stock, but neither has it been a disaster. My total return is 0.29% per year, with a capital loss of 2.72% per year and dividends of 3.01% per year.
When I bought the company, it was an income trust. It converted to a corporation in 2009 and dropped the dividends some 72%. This moved the Dividend Payout Ratios to good values, with the DPR for earnings around 68% and the DPR for cash flow to around 19%. (See my site for information on Dividend Payout Ratios).
The company raised its dividend in 2011 by some 13%. There were no increases in 2012. Some analysts feel that this company will start raising dividends again and feel it is possible this year, but more likely in 2014 and 2015. I have seen no sign of an increase as they have declared the third dividend for this year and it is the same as the current dividend.
The decrease in dividends moved the median dividend yield from a 6 to 7% to a 2 to 3% range. This is a much lower dividend yield range and with this lower range you would expect the company to growth more. However, we are in difficult economic times for a lot of companies.
The company really has not gone anywhere over the past 5 years as far as total returns go. The total returns are a negative 0.83% and positive 15.10% over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividend portion of these returns is 3.42% and 8.96% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There is a capital loss of 4.25% per year over the past 5 years and a capital gain of 6.14% per year over the past 10 years. As you can see most of the past great returns were dividends rather than capital gains.
The company's 2013 guidance is 5.4% to 6.5% growth. With the current dividend yield at 2.3%, that would be an equal to a total return of 7.7% to 8.8%, which is acceptable for a dividend paying stock. The first quarterly statements for 2013 are in and the company has increased the EPS, revenue and CF when comparing the last 12 months values with the value for the 12 months ending in 2012.
Over the past 5 and 10 years shares have increased by 14.8% and 15.8% per year. Shares have increased due to stock options and issuance of shares (for acquisitions) and have decreased due to buy backs. This company reports in US dollars. Because of currency exchange rate changes, this company has done better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms.
Revenues have increased by 16 and 29% per year in CDN$ over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues per share have increased by 1% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues per share sort of plateaued 5 years ago and if you look at the 5 year running average Revenue per Share over the past 5 years, this has increased by 6%.
Earnings per Share have increased by 3.7% and 9.6% per year in CDN$ over the past 5 and 10 years. Here again, this company has done better in US$ terms and CDN$ Terms. Cash Flow per Share has decreased by 1.5% per year over the past 5 years and increased by 11.8% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS has not gained much over the past 5 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for CFPS, there is an increase of 4.5% per year.
The Return on Equity is rather low on this company and it has always been rather low. The ROE is 7.4% for the 2012 financial year. It is not much better for the last 12 months at 8%. The 5 year median ROEs are 5.3% and 7.4%, respectively. A good point is that the ROE on comprehensive income is higher than that for the ROE on net income. For the 2012 year, the ROE on comprehensive income is 8.5% with the one for the past 12 months at 8.5% also.
The debt ratios are fine on for this company. The current Liquidity Ratio is a little low 1.11. However it has often been lower with a 5 year median value of just 0.83. If you include cash flow after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio is much better with a current one at 2.03. The Debt Ratio is good with a current one of 1.59. This ratio has always been good.
The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are fine at 2.70 and 1.70. These ratios have, in the past, been higher. (With these ratios, you want low ratios.)
Over the last 5 years, stock has not been doing well. However, I still think that it does have long term potential. This company is into waste disposal, so it is never going to be a high flyer, however I do not expect the stock to be a solid long term performer. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. The fund operates through its subsidiaries. Five companies control almost 53% of this company. There are also 11M special shares outstanding. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
I own this stock of Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (TSX-BIN, NYSE-BIN). I first bought this stock in 2007 and then bought some more in 2010. I haven't done well in this stock, but neither has it been a disaster. My total return is 0.29% per year, with a capital loss of 2.72% per year and dividends of 3.01% per year.
When I bought the company, it was an income trust. It converted to a corporation in 2009 and dropped the dividends some 72%. This moved the Dividend Payout Ratios to good values, with the DPR for earnings around 68% and the DPR for cash flow to around 19%. (See my site for information on Dividend Payout Ratios).
The company raised its dividend in 2011 by some 13%. There were no increases in 2012. Some analysts feel that this company will start raising dividends again and feel it is possible this year, but more likely in 2014 and 2015. I have seen no sign of an increase as they have declared the third dividend for this year and it is the same as the current dividend.
The decrease in dividends moved the median dividend yield from a 6 to 7% to a 2 to 3% range. This is a much lower dividend yield range and with this lower range you would expect the company to growth more. However, we are in difficult economic times for a lot of companies.
The company really has not gone anywhere over the past 5 years as far as total returns go. The total returns are a negative 0.83% and positive 15.10% over the past 5 and 10 years. The dividend portion of these returns is 3.42% and 8.96% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. There is a capital loss of 4.25% per year over the past 5 years and a capital gain of 6.14% per year over the past 10 years. As you can see most of the past great returns were dividends rather than capital gains.
The company's 2013 guidance is 5.4% to 6.5% growth. With the current dividend yield at 2.3%, that would be an equal to a total return of 7.7% to 8.8%, which is acceptable for a dividend paying stock. The first quarterly statements for 2013 are in and the company has increased the EPS, revenue and CF when comparing the last 12 months values with the value for the 12 months ending in 2012.
Over the past 5 and 10 years shares have increased by 14.8% and 15.8% per year. Shares have increased due to stock options and issuance of shares (for acquisitions) and have decreased due to buy backs. This company reports in US dollars. Because of currency exchange rate changes, this company has done better in US$ terms than in CDN$ terms.
Revenues have increased by 16 and 29% per year in CDN$ over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues per share have increased by 1% and 11% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. Revenues per share sort of plateaued 5 years ago and if you look at the 5 year running average Revenue per Share over the past 5 years, this has increased by 6%.
Earnings per Share have increased by 3.7% and 9.6% per year in CDN$ over the past 5 and 10 years. Here again, this company has done better in US$ terms and CDN$ Terms. Cash Flow per Share has decreased by 1.5% per year over the past 5 years and increased by 11.8% per year over the past 10 years. CFPS has not gained much over the past 5 years. If you look at the 5 year running averages for CFPS, there is an increase of 4.5% per year.
The Return on Equity is rather low on this company and it has always been rather low. The ROE is 7.4% for the 2012 financial year. It is not much better for the last 12 months at 8%. The 5 year median ROEs are 5.3% and 7.4%, respectively. A good point is that the ROE on comprehensive income is higher than that for the ROE on net income. For the 2012 year, the ROE on comprehensive income is 8.5% with the one for the past 12 months at 8.5% also.
The debt ratios are fine on for this company. The current Liquidity Ratio is a little low 1.11. However it has often been lower with a 5 year median value of just 0.83. If you include cash flow after dividends, the Liquidity Ratio is much better with a current one at 2.03. The Debt Ratio is good with a current one of 1.59. This ratio has always been good.
The current Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratio are fine at 2.70 and 1.70. These ratios have, in the past, been higher. (With these ratios, you want low ratios.)
Over the last 5 years, stock has not been doing well. However, I still think that it does have long term potential. This company is into waste disposal, so it is never going to be a high flyer, however I do not expect the stock to be a solid long term performer. See my spreadsheet at bin.htm.
They are a full-service waste management company providing non-hazardous solid waste collection and landfill disposal services for municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers in five provinces and ten US states. Two-thirds of their business is in US. The fund operates through its subsidiaries. Five companies control almost 53% of this company. There are also 11M special shares outstanding. Its web site is here Progressive Waste.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Power Financial Corp 2
I own this stock of Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). I first bought this stock in 2001 and then bought more in 2004 and most recently in 2011. I have made a return of 7.43% per year on this stock, with 3.1% per year from capital gains and 4.33% per year from dividends.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling at $233M and no insider buying. However, all insiders selling is by directors and a lot of it seems by one director Robert Gratton. Robert Gratton probably had enough shares and options to cover all that was sold by directors. There is a story about Robert Gratton retiring at Canada.com. He would be older than 65.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 10.57, 12.11 and 16.04. I get a current P/E Ratio of 11.69 based on a stock price of $30.52 and 2013 earnings of $2.61. This would suggest a reasonable stock price.
I get a current Graham Price of $31.23. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.12 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.98 and this also suggests a relatively reasonable stock price. (On an absolute basis, a stock is of good value when the P/GP Ratio is at 1.00 or below.)
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.22 and the current P/B Ratio is at 1.84 is 83% of the 10 year median and this ratio suggests a reasonable stock price. (For the stock price to be cheap, the current P/B Ratio would have to be only 80% or less of the 10 year median P/B Ratio. It is getting close, but it is not there yet.)
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.05% and the current dividend yield is 4.59%. The current dividend yield is 9% lower than the 5 year median dividend yield. The current dividend yield suggests a reasonable stock price. To show a cheap stock price, you would want a dividend yield a lot higher than the current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. Most of the recommendations are a Hold recommendation. The 12 months stock price consensus is $31.40. This implies a total return of 7.47% with 4.59% from dividends and 2.88% from capital gains.
It was not that long ago that a lot of people felt that this was a good dividend paying company to buy. See the Passive Income Earner blog on this company in March of 2011. It is a diversified financial company and the dividend is safe. I will continue to hold and collect my dividends from this company until the economic situation gets better and this company will again be a very good one to buy as well as to hold.
However, I would not suggest buying this stock unless the stock price turns cheap. This would mean that current ratio would be lower than the median low ratios. For example, if the current P/E was lower than the 5 year low median ratio of 10.57. It will be a while before this stock sees a recovery. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
When I look at insider trading, I find insider selling at $233M and no insider buying. However, all insiders selling is by directors and a lot of it seems by one director Robert Gratton. Robert Gratton probably had enough shares and options to cover all that was sold by directors. There is a story about Robert Gratton retiring at Canada.com. He would be older than 65.
The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings Ratios are 10.57, 12.11 and 16.04. I get a current P/E Ratio of 11.69 based on a stock price of $30.52 and 2013 earnings of $2.61. This would suggest a reasonable stock price.
I get a current Graham Price of $31.23. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.91, 1.12 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.98 and this also suggests a relatively reasonable stock price. (On an absolute basis, a stock is of good value when the P/GP Ratio is at 1.00 or below.)
The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 2.22 and the current P/B Ratio is at 1.84 is 83% of the 10 year median and this ratio suggests a reasonable stock price. (For the stock price to be cheap, the current P/B Ratio would have to be only 80% or less of the 10 year median P/B Ratio. It is getting close, but it is not there yet.)
The 5 year median dividend yield is 5.05% and the current dividend yield is 4.59%. The current dividend yield is 9% lower than the 5 year median dividend yield. The current dividend yield suggests a reasonable stock price. To show a cheap stock price, you would want a dividend yield a lot higher than the current dividend yield.
When I look at analysts' recommendations, I find Buy and Hold recommendations. The consensus recommendation would be a Hold. Most of the recommendations are a Hold recommendation. The 12 months stock price consensus is $31.40. This implies a total return of 7.47% with 4.59% from dividends and 2.88% from capital gains.
It was not that long ago that a lot of people felt that this was a good dividend paying company to buy. See the Passive Income Earner blog on this company in March of 2011. It is a diversified financial company and the dividend is safe. I will continue to hold and collect my dividends from this company until the economic situation gets better and this company will again be a very good one to buy as well as to hold.
However, I would not suggest buying this stock unless the stock price turns cheap. This would mean that current ratio would be lower than the median low ratios. For example, if the current P/E was lower than the 5 year low median ratio of 10.57. It will be a while before this stock sees a recovery. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Power Financial Corp
I own this stock of Power Financial Corp (TSX-PWF, OTC-POFNF). I first bought this stock in 2001 and then bought more in 2004 and most recently in 2011. I have made a return of 7.43% per year on this stock, with 3.1% per year from capital gains and 4.33% per year from dividends.
This is not a great return, but not really bad considering the problems all life insurance companies are having at the moment because of very low interest rates. As with a lot of companies, they have struggled since 2008 problems. This company, which prior to 2008 had a very good history of increasing their dividends, has not raised them since 2008. Unfortunately no analyst following this stock expects any dividend increases this year or next.
The rate of increases in dividends before 2008 averaged around 16% per year. The 10 year growth in dividends is still good at 10.41, but the 5 year growth is low at 3.8% and will soon be non-existent. The Dividend Payout Ratio has been climbing for earnings. The 5 year median is around 66%. It used to be below 40%. The DPR for cash flow has not changed much over the years and the 5 year median DPR for cash flow is at17%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.12% and 0.23% over the past 5 and 10 years. These are really only marginal increases. The shares seem to be increasing due to stock options. Revenue has recently been increasing and the 5 and 10 year growth is 2.5% and 5.7% per year. Revenue per Share is similar with growth at 2.4% and 5.4% per year.
This company is having problems growing its earnings and Earnings per Share have fallen by 3.9% per year over the past 5 years. EPS has grown at 5.5% per year over the past 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has done better and has grown at1.5% and 12.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (However, if you look at 5 year running averages, cash flow growth is much better at 6% per year and 18% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.)
The return on equity is better for 2012 than it has been for a number of years, coming in at 12.1%. The 5 year median ROE is just 7.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income is not much different coming in at 11.2% for 2012 and with a 5 year median ROE of 7.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio is quite good at 2.31. The Debt Ratio at 1.10 is good for an insurance company, although traditionally this company used to have higher Debt Ratios with the 5 and 10 year median ratios at 1.17 and 1.18. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 11.02 and 10.02 respectively is fine for an insurance company and in line with historical ratios.
This company has been slowly recovering from 2008 problems, but as with most life insurance companies, interest rates will probably have to improve before it will become a dividend growth company again. In the meantime, I am getting a yield on my money of around 5% and this is higher than historical norms for this company where yield were closer to 3% or lower. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
This is not a great return, but not really bad considering the problems all life insurance companies are having at the moment because of very low interest rates. As with a lot of companies, they have struggled since 2008 problems. This company, which prior to 2008 had a very good history of increasing their dividends, has not raised them since 2008. Unfortunately no analyst following this stock expects any dividend increases this year or next.
The rate of increases in dividends before 2008 averaged around 16% per year. The 10 year growth in dividends is still good at 10.41, but the 5 year growth is low at 3.8% and will soon be non-existent. The Dividend Payout Ratio has been climbing for earnings. The 5 year median is around 66%. It used to be below 40%. The DPR for cash flow has not changed much over the years and the 5 year median DPR for cash flow is at17%.
The outstanding shares have increased by 0.12% and 0.23% over the past 5 and 10 years. These are really only marginal increases. The shares seem to be increasing due to stock options. Revenue has recently been increasing and the 5 and 10 year growth is 2.5% and 5.7% per year. Revenue per Share is similar with growth at 2.4% and 5.4% per year.
This company is having problems growing its earnings and Earnings per Share have fallen by 3.9% per year over the past 5 years. EPS has grown at 5.5% per year over the past 10 years. Cash Flow per Share has done better and has grown at1.5% and 12.2% per year over the past 5 and 10 years. (However, if you look at 5 year running averages, cash flow growth is much better at 6% per year and 18% per year over the past 5 and 10 years.)
The return on equity is better for 2012 than it has been for a number of years, coming in at 12.1%. The 5 year median ROE is just 7.5%. The ROE on comprehensive income is not much different coming in at 11.2% for 2012 and with a 5 year median ROE of 7.3%.
The Liquidity Ratio is quite good at 2.31. The Debt Ratio at 1.10 is good for an insurance company, although traditionally this company used to have higher Debt Ratios with the 5 and 10 year median ratios at 1.17 and 1.18. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios at 11.02 and 10.02 respectively is fine for an insurance company and in line with historical ratios.
This company has been slowly recovering from 2008 problems, but as with most life insurance companies, interest rates will probably have to improve before it will become a dividend growth company again. In the meantime, I am getting a yield on my money of around 5% and this is higher than historical norms for this company where yield were closer to 3% or lower. See my spreadsheet at pwf.htm.
This company is a holding and management company. Its operations provide a range of individual and corporate financial and fiduciary services in North America and Europe. It holds interest in the following companies: Great-West Lifeco, Great-West Life, London Life, Canada Life, Great-West Life & Annuity, Putnam Investments, IGM Financial, Investors Group Mackenzie Financial, and Pargesa Group. Its web site is here Power Financial.
This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. See my website for stocks followed and investment notes. Follow me on Twitter or StockTwits.
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