Canadian Natural Resources

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Resources. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side, but could still be reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. See my spreadsheet on Canadian Natural Resources.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a resource stock and so would be cyclical. Lately the stock price has been climbing and it is probably at its high point ever. It is risky because it is into oil and gas explorations. Because it is a resource stock, I do not have much invested. Oil and gas are a big part of the TSX, so I do keep an eye on this sector. The 10 year dividend yield tests say the stock price is reasonable, but all other testing is saying the stock price is relatively expensive. With the P/E Ratio and P/AEPS Ratio testing, the ratios are very low ones. I am not going to sell any of my shares, but neither will I buy any more.

I own this stock of Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ). I first bought CNQ in September 2012 because the dividend yield was relatively high. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields were 0.73% and 0.75%. The current one was at 1.31% and I got it with a yield of 1.32%. In April 2013 I bought more shares of this stock because the yield is now at 1.54%. I bought another 100 shares in 2020 because the yield was 11.63%.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed this stock’s price has been climbing lately. I have done well with this stock. I have had it for 12 years and have a total return of 17.07% with 13.81% from capital gains and 3.26% from dividends. I have this stock to track oil stocks. They are a large part of the TSX.

There seems to be a lot of insiders selling going on. A lot of it has to do people not taking up options. However, with the change in President, the old President sold all his shares. There is also some selling with a director I am following and he has been selling shares over the past few years. There has always been lots of insider selling showing and mostly has to do with people not taking up options as far as I can see.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,006.32 you would have bought 28 shares at $13.94 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $503.51 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,267.72. Your total return would have been $2,771.25. This would be a total return of 11.54% per year with 8.46% from capital gain and 3.08% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$35.94	$1,006.32	28	10	$503.51	$2,267.72	$2,771.23

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth good. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.97%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 4.38% and 3.59%. The historical median dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.22%. Dividends were lower than 2% before 2014. The dividend increases are good (15% and higher) at 21.5% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 5%. However, this company often increases dividends more than once in a year. Dividends in 2024 are 16.9% higher than in 2023.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 48% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 46% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 23%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 52% with 5 year coverage at 38%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	47.52%	46.46%
AEPS	45.87%	46.29%
CFPS	25.78%	23.21%
FCF	52.30%	37.55%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.11 and currently at 0.09. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 0.96. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 2.11 and currently at 2.36. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.10. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.91and 0.91.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.11	0.09
Intang/GW	0.00	0.00
Liquidity	0.96	0.96
Liq. + CF	2.11	2.36
Debt Ratio	2.10	2.10
Leverage	1.91	1.91
D/E Ratio	0.91	0.91

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	21.51%	24.76%	19.71%	5.04%
2013	10	22.15%	11.54%	8.46%	3.08%
2008	15	21.45%	10.70%	8.33%	2.37%
2003	20	21.53%	14.64%	12.15%	2.49%
1998	25	22.62%	16.71%	14.29%	2.42%
1993	30		14.42%	12.69%	1.73%
1990	33		22.35%	19.61%	2.74%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 6.54, 7.84 and 9.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 6.59, 7.90 and 9.22. The corresponding historical ratios are 10.23, 13.56 and 15.70. The current P/E Ratio is 13.94 based on a stock price of $105.84 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $7.60. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Note that these ratios are quite low.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 5.57, 6.67 and 8.55. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.02, 10.91 and 12.66. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 13.87 based on a stock price of $105.84 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $7.63. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Note that these ratios are quite low.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 3.50, 4.34 and 5.05. The corresponding 10 year ratios 3.86, 5.59 and 6.66. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 7.67 based on a stock price of $105.84 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $7.63. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a Graham Price of $79.85. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.94 and 1.12. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.33 based on a stock price of $105.84. The current ratio is above the high ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.47. The current P/B Ratio is 2.85 based on a stock price of $105.84, Book Value of $39,832M and Book Value per Share of $37.14. The current ratio is 94% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I also have Book Value per Share estimate for 2024 of $38.20. This value implies a P/B Ratio is 2.77 with a stock price of $105.84 and Book Value of $40,966M. This ratio is 88% above the 10 year median ratio of 1.47. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 5.90. The current P/CF Ratio is 7.67 based on a stock price of $105.84, Cash Flow per Shares estimate for 2024 of $13.80 and Cash Flow of $14,799M. The current ratio is 30% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.22%. The current dividend yield is 3.97% based on dividends of $4.20 and a stock price of $105.84. The current dividend yield is 225% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 3.59%. The current dividend yield is 3.97% based on dividends of $4.20 and a stock price of $105.84. The current dividend yield is 10% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.10. The current P/S Ratio is 3.13 based on a stock price of $105.84, Revenue estimate for 2024 of $34,971, and Revenue per Share of $33.76. The current P/S Ratio is 49% above the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably on the expensive side, but could still be reasonable. The 10 year median dividend yield test says that the stock price is reasonable, but the P/S Ratio test does not confirm this. All the other rest, but the dividend yield tests are pointing to the stock price as being expensive.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (7), Buy (5), and Hold (10). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $110.20 with a high of $126.00 and low of $91.00. The consensus stock price of $110.20 implies a total return of 8.09%, with 4.12% from capital gains and 3.97% from dividends.

There are a lot of buy recommendations on Stock Chase for this stock for 2024 and there is one hold. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool says buy for passive income. Robin Brown on Motley Fool thinks this is the best of the energy stocks. The company put out a press release on Newsfile about their 2023 year end results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and two others. Simply Wall Street has one warnings of Significant insider selling over the past 3 month. Unfortunately, statistics do not differentiate between no taking up options and selling. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 4 stars out of 5.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production company. The Company's exploration and production operations are focused in North America, largely in Western Canada; the United Kingdom (UK) portion of the North Sea, and Cote d'Ivoire and South Africa in Offshore Africa. It derives a majority of its revenue from North America. Its web site is here Canadian Natural Resources.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Barclays PLC ADR (LSE-BARC, NYSE-BCS) ... learn more on Friday, April 26, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Best Dividend Stocks learn more on Thursday, April 25, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Pembina Pipelines Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Utility. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine, but Liquidity Ratio could be improved. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine going by the DPR for AFFO and CFPS. The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low See my spreadsheet on Pembina Pipelines Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? This is a utility stocks and is therefore generally a safe stock. However, at some point, we will be getting off oil and gas, but I would think that this will take more than 20 years. I have no intentions of selling my shares in this company even though its return is now lower than when I bought this company. In the last 5 and 10 years total return is in the 8% per year range and before that around 15% per year. The current price is in the reasonable and below the median range.

I own this stock of Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA). In December 2001 I thought it would be a good time to purchase this stock as the market was relatively low. Pipeline stocks are conservative and the return on this one was good at 9.7%. When I purchased this stock, it was an Income Trust company.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have well with this stock. I have owned it for 22 years and I have a total return of 15.75% per year with 7.26% from capital gains and 8.49% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,010.34 you would have bought 27 shares at $37.42 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $600.28 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,231.74. Your total return would have been $1,832.02. This would be a total return of 7.33% per year with 2.00% from capital gain and 5.33% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$37.42	$1,010.34	27	10	$600.28	$1,231.74	$1,832.02

The current dividend yield is good with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 5.64%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also good at 6.05% and 5.53%. The historical median dividend yield is high (7% and over) at 7.10%. The dividend growth is low (below 8% per year) at 3.6% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase occurred in 2023 and it was for 2.3%. However, the dividend increased by 4.1% between 2022 and 2023.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine going by the DPR for AFFO and CFPS. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is too high at 89% with 5 year coverage at 106%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) is fine at 55% with 5 year coverage at 55%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is fine at 51% with 5 year coverage at 42%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 75% with 5 year coverage at 86%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	88.80%	105.85%
AFFO	55.20%	54.84%
CFPS	40.93%	41.97%
FCF	75.16%	86.21%

Debt Ratios are fine, but Liquidity Ratio could be improved. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.39 and currently at 0.38. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is too low at 0.82. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are still too low at 1.18 and currently at 1.27. I prefer this ratio to be 1.50 or higher. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.94. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.06 and 1.06.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.39	0.38
Intang/GW	0.24	0.23
Liquidity	0.82	0.82
Liq. + CF	1.18	1.27
Debt Ratio	1.94	1.94
Leverage	2.06	2.06
D/E Ratio	1.06	1.06

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 26 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. So, if you held this stock for 15 years, dividends would have grown by 3.89% per year, your total return would be 15.77% per year with 7.58% from capital gains and 8.19% from dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	3.55%	8.32%	2.40%	5.92%
2013	10	4.94%	7.33%	2.00%	5.33%
2008	15	3.89%	15.77%	7.58%	8.19%
2003	20	4.66%	14.09%	6.44%	7.65%
1998	25	4.20%	16.38%	7.08%	9.30%
1997	26	6.17%	20.08%	8.15%	11.93%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 13.12, 14.69 and 16.25. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.12, 18.66 and 21.20. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.39, 20.76 and 23.35. The current P/E Ratio is 15.05 based on a stock price of $47.38 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $3.15. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Adjusted Funds from Operations Ratios are 7.99, 9.13 and 11.01. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 9.15, 10.25 and 12.18. The current P/AFFO Ratio is 9.40 based on stock price of $47.38 and AFFO estimate for 2023 of $5.04. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Funds from Operations (FFO) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/ Funds from Operations Ratios are 7.26, 8.64 and 10.14. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 8.41, 9.41 and 11.81. The current P/FFO Ratio is 9.89 based on stock price of $47.38 and FFO for last 12 months of $4.79. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $40.74. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.06, 1.18 and 1.38. The current ratio is 1.13 based on a stock price of $47.38. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.68. The current ratio is 1.92 based on a stock price of $47.38, Book Value of $2,208M and Book Value per Share of $24.67. The current ratio is 14% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have an estimate for the Book Value per Share for 2024 of $28.80. This implies a ratio of 1.84 based on a stock price of $47.38 and Book Value of $14,164. This ratio is 9% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 9.76. The current ratio is 8.87 based on a stock price of $47.38, Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $5.34 and Cash Flow of $2,932M. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 7.10%. The current dividend yield is 5.64% based on dividends of $2.67 and a stock price of $47.38. The current dividend yield is 21% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive. Dividend yields were quite high between 1997 (start of my records) until 2011 when they moderated. This company used to be an income trust and income trusts had high dividend yields compared to corporations.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 5.3%. The current dividend yield is 5.64% based on dividends of $2.67 and a stock price of $47.38. The current dividend yield is 6% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.93. The current P/S Ratio is 2.66 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $9,778M, Revenue per Share of $17.81 and a stock price of $47.38. The current ratio is 9% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year median dividend yield test shows the stock price as reasonable and below the median. The P/S Ratio tests confirms this. Most of the rest of the testing shows the stock price as reasonable and above or below the median. The exception is the historical median dividend yield test which shows stock price as expensive, but yields were a lot higher prior to 2011 and after.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (8), Buy (4) and Hold (5). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 months stock price consensus is $52.52 with a high of $58.00 and low of $39.50. The consensus price of $52.52 implies a total return of 16.48% with 10.85% from capital gains and 5.64% from dividends.

There were 7 buy recommendations on Stock Chase with the last one for 2024 being a Hold. Even the Hold recommendations says that it is currently fairly valued. Stock Chase gives this stock 5 stars out of 5. It is on all the dividend lists that I follow. Robin Brown on Motley Fool says buy this company for its passive income. Get an retirement revenue stream says Christopher Liew on Motley Fool by investing in this company. The company put out a Press Release about their 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a report on this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. It has two warnings of has a high level of debt; and shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Pembina Pipeline is a midstream company serving the Canadian and North American (primarily Bakken) markets with an integrated product portfolio. Its assets include pipelines and gas gathering as well as assets across fractionation, storage, and propane exports. Its web site is here Pembina Pipelines Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-GOLD) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Canadian Natural Resources (TSX-CNQ, NYSE-CNQ) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 22, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Natural Occurring Retirement Communities.... learn more on Tuesday, April 23, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures

Barrick Gold Corp

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth generally low with dividend increases and decreases over the years. See my spreadsheet on Barrick Gold Corp.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I do not recommend buy resource stocks. They are mostly cyclical and not good long term buys. I do not recommend gold stocks. I have some resource just to keep track of them as they are a good part of the TSX. I have little invested in this stock. The stock price does seem to be reasonable.

I own this stock of Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-GOLD). I have this stock to help me track gold stocks. I only have 200 shares. I have had this stock for almost 10 year and have made a total return per year of 6.01% with 3.96% from capital gains and 2.05% from dividends.

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,010.34 you would have bought 54 shares at $18.71 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $231.22 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,292.76. Your total return would have been $1,523.98. This would be a total return of 4.40% per year with 2.50% from capital gain and 1.90% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$18.71	$1,010.34	54	10	$231.22	$1,292.76	$1,523.98

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for 11 years. I made two purchases in 2013 and 2016. I have a total return of 6.01%, with 3.96% from capital gains and 2.05% from dividends. Over the years, this stock has not returned much to its shareholders. See the Total Return to the end of 2023 chart in a paragraph below. The problem is that the stock hit a peak in 2011 that it has never matched again. It is now low compared to another lower peak in 2020. Also see the Total Return to the end of 2019 below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2014	5	0.00%	12.55%	11.58%	0.97%
2009	10	-6.70%	-6.23%	-7.23%	1.00%
2004	15	-0.63%	-0.32%	-1.75%	1.43%
1999	20	0.00%	1.83%	0.25%	1.58%
1994	25	2.81%	0.55%	-0.72%	1.26%
1989	30	6.53%	4.65%	2.89%	1.76%
1986	33	9.81%	10.27%	7.17%	3.09%

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth generally low with dividend increases and decreases over the years. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 2.24%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are low (below 2%) at 1.70%, 1.31% and 1.19%. The dividends are up by 27% per year over the past 5 years, but this is because of dividends being raised in 2017 after cuts. The 10 year dividend growth is negative 2% per year because of dividend cuts. Over the past 36 years, the company has raised dividends 23 times and decreased them 5 times. It is on the Money Sense and Dividend Aristocrat dividend lists.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are fine. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is fine at 56% with 5 year coverage at 46%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is fine at 48% with 5 year coverage at 59%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 14% with 5 year coverage at 16%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is, of course too high at 177% with 5 year coverage fine at 53%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	55.56%	46.18%
AEPS	47.62%	59.42%
CFPS	14.09%	16.66%
FCF	176.93%	53.43%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.15. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.16. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 3.32. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.96 and 0.59.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.15	0.15
Intang/GW	0.12	0.12
Liquidity	3.16	3.16
Liq. + CF	4.44	4.69
Debt Ratio	3.32	3.32
Leverage	1.96	1.96
D/E Ratio	0.59	0.59

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 37 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	27.23%	9.31%	5.97%	3.25%
2013	10	-2.21%	-0.59%	-2.21%	1.90%
2008	15	0.00%	-3.11%	-4.62%	1.43%
2003	20	3.03%	0.63%	-1.13%	1.57%
1998	25	3.25%	1.64%	-0.12%	1.49%
1993	30	5.51%	-0.17%	-1.49%	1.23%
1988	35	8.94%	6.98%	4.34%	2.72%
1986	37	10.79%	9.79%	6.30%	3.45%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 15.44, 18.59 and 23.98. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.10, 16.39 and 19.55. The corresponding historical ratios are 18.68, 25.03 and 29.31. The current P/E Ratio is 16.41 based on a stock price of $23.38 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $1.42. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median. This testing is in CDN$.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 16.89, 20.61 and 26.49. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 17.18, 22.93 and 32.54. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 18.03 based on a stock price of $16.95 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $0.94. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a Graham Price of $23.25. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.93, 1.33 and 1.73. The current ratio is 1.01 based on a stock price of $23.38. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in CDN$

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.67. The current ratio is 1.27 based on a stock price of $16.95, Book Value of $23,341M and Book Value per Share of $13.30. The current ratio is 24% below the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I also have a Book Value per Share (BVPS) estimate for 2024 of $13.70. This implies a ratio of $1.24 and Book Value of $24,051M with a stock price of $16.95. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 8.07. The current P/CF Ratio is 6.89 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $2.46, Cash Flow of $4,319M and a stock price of $16.95. The current ratio is 15% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.19%. The current dividend yield is 2.36% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $16.95. The current dividend yield is 98% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 1.31%. The current dividend yield is 2.36% based on dividends of $0.40 and a stock price of $16.95. The current dividend yield is 81% above the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable cheap. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 2.52. The current P/S Ratios is 2.36 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $12,610M, Revenue per Share of $7.18 and a stock price of $16.95. The current ratio is 6% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median. This testing is in US$ and you will get a similar result in CDN$.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The dividend tests are saying the stock price is cheap, but this company varies its dividend as it goes up and down. The P/S Ratio test does not confirm the cheap price showing in the dividend yield tests. Most of the other testing is showing the stock price as relatively cheap or reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (10), Buy (6), Hold (1) and Underperform (1). This is a fairly wide range. The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $28.28 ($20.54 US$), with a high of $35.01 ($25.43) and low of $22.91 ($16.64). The consensus price of $28.218 implies a total return of 23.29% with 20.94% from capital gains and 2.36% from dividends.

Analyst recommendations on Stock Chase for 2024 contain two Do Not Buys, one Hold and one Weak Buy. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks this stock is good to own because rising tensions in Middle East should cause gold prices to rise. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool also thinks gold is going to rise in price. The company put out a press release via Newswire about its fourth quarter results. There is a report via Yahoo Finance from a site called InvestorPlace.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this stock and insider buying. Simply Wall Street give this stock 4 stars out of 5. It lists one warning of Dividend of 2.4% is not well covered by cash flows.

Based in Toronto, Barrick Gold is one of the world's largest gold miners. It operates mines in 19 countries in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The company also has growing copper exposure. Its web site is here Barrick Gold Corp.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Pembina Pipelines Corp (TSX-PPL, NYSE-PBA) ... learn more on Monday, April 22, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Leon's Furniture Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Consumer. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. Debt Ratios are fine. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. See my spreadsheet on Leon's Furniture Ltd.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? There are few analysts following this stock and they all say Hold. Analysts do not expect the stock price to rise much this year and they complain of small increases in the Revenue per year. There is also talk about the company spinning of their real estate holdings via a REIT. I will continue to hold on to my shares. I would expect total return to be around 8% per year, and that is reasonable. Current price is a reasonable one.

I own this stock of Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF). I had some money in 2006 and this stock has been on MPL Communication's Investor Reporter list for some time. It was also on Mike Higgs' Dividend Growth Stock list. I bought some in 2006 and then some more in 2008, 2009, 2010,2013,2019 and 2022.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have had this stock for almost 18 years and I have a total return per year of 8.03% with 4.57% from capital gains and 3.46% from dividends.

This is not a great growth stock like Toromont Industries, but I think to have a good dividend producing portfolio, you need to have a variety of stock types. In every bear market I have been though, some sectors are hit harder than others and some are hardly hit at all. It seems no one knows what sectors are going to be hit in a bear market ahead of time. In all bear markets, some of my stocks cut or suspend dividends, others keep them flat and then others increase dividends.

In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. The analysts that complain about revenue growth are right. You would want Revenue growth of at least 5% per year. Revenue growth is low for the past 5 and 10 years and is still expected to be low for 2024 at 3.47%.

Yr	Item	Tot. Gwth	Per Year	Gwth	Coverage
5	Revenue Growth	9.52%	1.84%	-5.96%	<-12 mths
5	AEPS Growth	57.25%	9.48%	1.46%	<-12 mths
5	Net Income Growth	25.06%	4.57%	1.47%	<-12 mths
5	Cash Flow Growth	39.13%	6.83%
5	Dividend Growth	28.00%	5.06%	12.50%	<-12 mths
5	Stock Price Growth	20.83%	3.86%	21.15%	<-12 mths
10	Revenue Growth	44.86%	3.78%	3.47%	<-this year
10	AEPS Growth	136.78%	9.00%	0.00%	<-this year
10	Net Income Growth	106.68%	7.53%	0.93%	<-this year
10	Cash Flow Growth	204.76%	11.79%	21.93%	<-this year
10	Dividend Growth	60.00%	4.81%	12.50%	<-this year
10	Stock Price Growth	29.44%	2.61%	21.15%	<-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,010.16 you would have bought 72 shares at $19.88 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $486.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $1,307.52. Your total return would have been $1,793.52. This would be a total return of 6.67% per year with 2.61% from capital gain and 4.06% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$14.03	$1,010.16	72	10	$486.00	$1,307.52	$1,793.52

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth low. The current dividend yield is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.27%. The 5, 10 and historical median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.19%, 2.78% and 2.28%. The dividend increase is low (below 8% per year) at 5.1% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase occurred in 2024 and it was for 12.5%. Note that there were no dividend increases in 2022 and 2023. This company does not increase the dividend each year. They occasionally give out special dividends. The company is only on the Globe and Mail all Star dividend list.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 32% with 5 year coverage at 43%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 31% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 22% with 5 year coverage at 26%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 30%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	31.68%	43.42%
AEPS	31.07%	30.17%
CFPS	21.67%	26.46%
FCF	21.37%	29.95%

Debt Ratios are fine. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.07 and currently at 0.06. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is low at 1.34. If you added in Cash Flow after dividends, the ratios are fine at 1.68 and currently at 1.76. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 1.86. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are fine at 2.16 and 1.16.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.07	0.06
Intang/GW	0.54	0.45
Liquidity	1.34	1.34
Liq. + CF	1.68	1.76
Debt Ratio	1.86	1.86
Leverage	2.16	2.16
D/E Ratio	1.16	1.16

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 35 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	5.06%	9.61%	3.86%	5.76%
2013	10	4.81%	6.67%	2.61%	4.06%
2008	15	5.67%	9.21%	4.79%	4.42%
2003	20	8.51%	9.05%	4.88%	4.17%
1998	25	9.41%	10.37%	5.89%	4.47%
1993	30	9.92%	10.14%	6.12%	4.02%
1988	35	8.44%	11.71%	7.43%	4.29%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.67, 8.85 and 10.04. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 10.90, 12.34 and 13.78. The corresponding historical ratios are 12.15, 14.56 and 15.98. The P/E Ratio is going down because EPS is rising faster than the stock price. The current ratio is 10.68 based on a stock price of $22.00 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $2.06. This ratio is lower than the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (SEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 7.73, 8.92 and 10.12. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 11.02, 12.48 and 13.94. The current P/AEPS ratio is 10.68 based on a stock price of $22.00 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $2.06. The current ratio is below the low ratio of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a Graham Price of $26.47. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.82, 0.94 and 1.07. The current P/GP Ratio is 0.83 based on a stock price of $22.00. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.64. The current P/B Ratio is 1.46 based on Book Value of $1028.5M, Book Value per Share of $15.12 and a stock price of $22.0. The current ratio is 11% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 7.04. The current P/CF Ratio is 4.85 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $4.54, Cash Flow of $309M and a stock price of $22.00. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 2.28%. The current dividend yield is 3.27% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $22.00. The current dividend yield is 43% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 2.85%. The current dividend yield is 3.27% based on dividends of $0.72 and a stock price of $22.00. The current dividend yield is 15% above the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.56. The current P/S Ratio is 0.59 based on Revenue estimate of $2,540M, Revenue per Share of $37.34 and a stock price of $22.00. The current ratio is 4.6% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable. The 10 year dividend yield test suggests this and it is confirmed by the P/S Ratio test. The P/S Ratio test is the only one with reasonable result but above the median. All the other tests are showing the price as cheap or reasonable and below the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find only a Hold (1) recommendation. The consensus would be a Hold. The 12 month target price is $23.00 with only one price. The target price of $23.00 implies a total return of 7.82% with 4.55% from capital gains and 3.27% from dividends. This stock is not well followed.

On Yahoo Finance, the recommendation is also a Hold (3). It also has only one 12 month target price of $23.00. The WSJ has only one recommendation of a Hold.

There are only 2023 entries on Stock Chase and 2 are buys, one Hold and one Trade. The Trade expects the company’s Real Estate to go to a REIT. Stock Chase gives this stock 4 stars out of 5. Joey Frenette on Motley Fool says buy well it is cheap and before it takes off. Ambrose O'Callaghan on Motley Fool says to buy before the stock takes off. The company put out a Press Release for its 2023 fourth quarter results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance reviews this company. Simply Wall Street has two warnings of significant insider selling over the past 3 months; and unstable dividend track record. There is no significant selling, just insider not taking up options type deals. These show as selling. Also, the dividend track record is stable, they just do not increase their dividends each year. If you are in the US, it might appear dividends are unstable because dividends are paid in CDN$ and you will have to deal with currency exchange. This site often confuses unstable dividends with dividends paid in CDN$. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Leon's Furniture Ltd is a Canada-based retailer which is involved in the sale of home furnishing, mattresses, appliances, and electronics. The firm is also the country's commercial retailer of appliances to builders, developers, hotels, and property management companies. It generates maximum revenue from sales of goods by corporate stores. Its web site is here Leon's Furniture Ltd.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Barrick Gold Corp (TSX-ABX, NYSE-GOLD) ... learn more on Friday, April 19, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Top 5 Stocks.... learn more on Thursday, April 18, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Supremex Inc

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Materials. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but could be cheap. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good, but have varied a lot in the past. The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarting after a dividend suspension. See my spreadsheet on Supremex Inc.

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? I bought this small cap stock with my fooling around money. It is a small cap and therefore risky. I do not have much of this and I have no plan to sell the shares I hold.

I own this stock of Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF). I read about it in Money Sense article of 15 Stocks to help investors ride market swings by Michael Pe on Mar 4, 2018 . They were an envelope company, but are diversifying into packaging.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed by total return has gone down from last year when the stock was worth $6.15 with a total return of $26.65 with 18.34T from capital gains and 8.34% from Dividends. This year, at the end of March, the stock price is $4.04 and my total return is 11.66%, with 8.39% from capital gains and 3.27% from dividends. (A dividend is generally paid in March, but this year it did not come in until early April.)

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,001.88 you would have bought 484 shares at $2.07 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $847.00 in dividends. The stock would be worth $2,066.68. Your total return would have been $2,913.68. This would be a total return of 14.42% per year with 7.51% from capital gain and 6.91% from dividends

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$2.07	$1,001.88	484	10	$847.00	$2,066.68	$2,913.68

The current dividend yield is moderate with dividend growth restarting after a dividend suspension. The current dividend is moderate (2% to 4% ranges) at 3.92%. The 5 and 10 year median dividend yields are also moderate at 3.09% and 3.66%. The historical median dividend yield is good (5% to 6% ranges) at 6.86%. This company used to be an income trust and these companies have generally high yields because they can. Dividends were suspended in 2021. They were started in 2022. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 14.3%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are currently good, but have varied a lot in the past. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 21% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 24%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 11%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is good at 10% with 5 year coverage at 13%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	20.90%	23.29%
AEPS	19.72%	33.59%
CFPS	9.96%	11.49%
FCF	9.58%	13.36%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.51 and currently at 0.53. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.82. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.04. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.96 and 0.96.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.51	0.53
Intang/GW	0.89	0.93
Liquidity	2.28	2.28
Liq. + CF	3.29	3.35
Debt Ratio	2.04	2.04
Leverage	1.96	1.96
D/E Ratio	0.96	0.96

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 17 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	-11.65%	16.47%	11.75%	4.72%
2013	10	0.74%	14.42%	7.51%	6.91%
2008	15	-13.10%	8.00%	2.01%	6.00%
2006	17	-11.65%	1.08%	-3.95%	5.03%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 4.19, 6.72 and 9.25. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.99, 7.60 and 9.91. The corresponding historical ratios are 4.95, 7.10 and 9.47. The current P/E Ratio is 6.80 based on a stock price of $4.08 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $0.60. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 2.89, 4.49 and 6.18. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 4.84, 7.51 and 9.80. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 6.80 based on a stock price of $4.08 and AEPS estimate of $0.60. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a Graham Price of $8.42. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.40, 0.63 and 0.86. The current ratio is 0.48 based on a stock price of $4.08. The current ratio is between the low and median ratios of the 10 year ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 1.13. The current ratio is 0.78 based on a stock price of $4.08, Book Value of $134.7M and Book Value per Share of $5.25. The current ratio is 31% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 4.25. The current P/CF Ratio is 2.22 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $1.84, Cash Flow of $47.2M and a stock price of $4.08. The current ratio is 47% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 6.86%. The current dividend yield is 3.92% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $4.08. The current dividend yield is 43% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

I get a 10 year median dividend yield of 4.66%. The current dividend yield is 3.92% based on dividends of $0.16 and a stock price of $4.08. The current dividend yield is 16% below the 10 year median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 0.50. The current P/S Ratio is 0.37 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $284M, Revenue per Share of $11.08 and a stock price of $4.08. The current ratio is 26% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively cheap.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price is probably reasonable, but could be cheap. The problem with the dividend yield tests is that dividends were cut recently. Dividend cuts are never a good sign, but the company has restored the dividends and are currently raising them. The 10 year dividend yield test is saying that the stock price is relatively reasonable. The P/S Ratio test is showing the stock price as cheap. However, most of the testing is showing stock price as reasonable.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (2) and Hold (1). The consensus would be a Strong Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $5.33 with a High of $6.00 and low of $5.00. The consensus price of $5.33 implies a total return of 34.56% with 30.64% from capital gains and 3.72% from dividends.

There is only one entry on Stock Chase for 2024 and the recommendation is a sell because of declining Revenue and Earnings. This is from i5 Research. Last year they liked this stock. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is one of the best Canadian stocks to buy in July 2023. Aditya Raghunath on Motley Fool thinks this is a great stock for you TFSA. The company put out a press release via Newswire about their 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance talks about this stock’s dividend. Simply Wall Street put out 4 warnings on this stock of profit margins (5.7%) are lower than last year (10.4%); has a high level of debt; does not have a meaningful market cap (CA$107M); and unstable dividend track record. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5.

Supremex Inc is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of envelopes and is a growing provider of paper-based packaging solutions and specialty products. The Company operates in two reporting segments: the manufacturing and sale of a broad range of standard and custom envelopes and the manufacturing and sale of paper-based packaging solutions and specialty products. Its web site is here Supremex Inc.

The last stock I wrote about was about was Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Leon's Furniture Ltd (TSX-LNF, OTC-LEFUF) ... learn more on Wednesday, April 17, 2024 around 5 pm. Tomorrow on my other blog I will write about Buy Your First Car.... learn more on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. I have three blogs. The first talks only about specific stocks and is called Investment Talk. The second one contains information on mostly investing and is called Investing Economics Mostly. My last blog is for my book reviews and it is called Non-Fiction Mostly. Follow me on Twitter. I am on Instagram. Or you can just Google #walktoronto spbrunner8166 to see my pictures.

Toromont Industries Ltd

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Dividend Growth Industrial. Debt Ratios are good. Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be still reasonable, but in the top of the reasonable range. Debt Ratios are good. The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly good. The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. See my spreadsheet on Toromont Industries Ltd .

Is it a good company at a reasonable price? Personally, I am still pleased with this company. I do not plan to buy more, but I will keep what I have. Since I live off my dividends, I do not have much in the way of cash to do much in the way of investing. The stock price still seems to be in a reasonable area, but it is at the top of the reasonable range.

I own this stock of Toromont Industries Ltd (TSX-TIH, OTC-TMTNF). This was a stock on Mike Higgs' Canadian Dividend Growth Stock list. This is one of the stocks I bought after selling Loblaws in 2008. I bought more in 2008 after selling Onex and AGF Management.

When I was updating my spreadsheet, I noticed I have done well with this stock. I have had it for 16 years and have earned a total return of 13.74% with 12.02% from capital gains and 1.72% from dividends. Over the past 15 years, dividends have grown 11.2% per share from $.34 to $1.68 per share.

In the chart below, I am showing 5 and 10 year total growth and per year growth in columns 3 and 4. Column 5 shows growth expected over 12 months to the first quarter in 2024 and expected growth over the next year. This shows good growth generally except in the last 5 years for Cash Flow, although cash flow is expected go grow well over the next year by some 90%

Yr	Item	Tot. Gwth	Per Year	Gwth	Coverage
5	Revenue Growth	31.91%	5.69%	0.54%	<-12 mths
5	EPS Growth	110.10%	16.01%	-0.93%	<-12 mths
5	Net Income Growth	112.20%	16.24%	16.87%	<-12 mths
5	Cash Flow Growth	-29.71%	-6.81%
5	Dividend Growth	90.91%	13.81%	11.31%	<-12 mths
5	Stock Price Growth	113.97%	16.43%	14.98%	<-12 mths
10	Revenue Growth	190.08%	11.24%	3.87%	<-this year
10	EPS Growth	305.66%	15.03%	1.77%	<-this year
10	Net Income Growth	334.62%	15.83%	3.51%	<-this year
10	Cash Flow Growth	77.42%	5.90%	90.83%	<-this year
10	Dividend Growth	229.41%	12.66%	14.29%	<-this year
10	Stock Price Growth	335.65%	15.85%	14.98%	<-this year

If you had invested in this company in December 2013, for $1,012.70 you would have bought 38 shares at $26.65 per share. In December 2023, after 10 years you would have received $392.92 in dividends. The stock would be worth $4,411.80. Your total return would have been $4,804.72. This would be a total return of 17.75% per year with 15.85% from capital gain and 1.89% from dividends.

Cost	Tot. Cost	Shares	Years	Dividends	Stock Val	Tot Ret
$26.65	$1,012.70	38	10	$392.92	$4,411.80	$4,804.72

The current dividend yield is low with dividend growth moderate. The current dividend yield is low (below 2%) at 1.47%. The 5, 10 and historical dividend yields are also low at 1.54%, 1.58% and 1.69%. The current dividend growth is moderate (8% to 14% ranges) at 13.8% per year over the past 5 years. The last dividend increase was in 2024 and it was for 11.6%.

The Dividend Payout Ratios (DPR) are mostly good. The DPR for 2023 for Earnings per Share (EPS) is good at 26% with 5 year coverage at 30%. The DPR for 2023 for Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 22%. The DPR for 2023 for Cash Flow per Share (CFPS) is good at 20% with 5 year coverage at 21%. The DPR for 2023 for Free Cash Flow (FCF) is high at 69% with 5 year coverage at 45%.

Item	Cur	5 Years
EPS	26.05%	30.04%
AEPS	19.68%	21.51%
CFPS	19.64%	20.97%
FCF	69.32%	45.45%

Debt Ratios are good. The Long Term Debt/Market Cap Ratio for 2023 is good at 0.07 and currently at 0.06. The Liquidity Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.65 and 2.64 currently. The Debt Ratio for 2023 is good at 2.42. The Leverage and Debt/Equity Ratios for 2023 are good at 1.70 and 0.70.

Type	Year End	Ratio Curr
Lg Term R	0.07	0.06
Intang/GW	0.05	0.04
Liquidity	2.64	2.64
Liq. + CF	2.84	3.13
Debt Ratio	2.42	2.42
Leverage	1.70	1.70
D/E Ratio	0.70	0.70

The Total Return per year is shown below for years of 5 to 33 to the end of 2023. Under the Capital Gain column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to capital gains. Under the Dividend column is the portion of the Total Return attributable to dividends. See chart below.

From	Years	Div. Gth	Tot Ret	Cap Gain	Div.
2018	5	13.81%	18.25%	16.43%	1.82%
2013	10	12.66%	17.75%	15.85%	1.89%
2008	15	11.17%	17.08%	15.10%	1.98%
2003	20	13.71%	14.71%	12.97%	1.73%
1998	25	12.97%	15.37%	13.57%	1.80%
1993	30	15.65%	18.80%	16.20%	2.59%
1990	33	14.66%	22.61%	18.55%	4.06%

The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Earnings per Share Ratios are 17.58, 20.09, 22.59. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 16.45, 18.76 and 22.04. The corresponding historical ratios are 13.36, 15.33 and 18.76. The current P/E Ratio is 19.88 based on a stock price of $130.50 and EPS estimate for 2024 of $6.56. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I also have Adjusted Earnings per Share (AEPS) data. The 5-year low, median, and high median Price/Adjusted Earnings per Share Ratios are 12.03, 14.62 and 16.44. The corresponding 10 year ratios are 12.95, 15.74 and 17.70. The current P/AEPS Ratio is 15.35 based on a stock price of $130.50 and AEPS estimate for 2024 of $8.50. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a Graham Price of $78.97. The 10-year low, median, and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 1.31, 1.58 and 1.80. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.65 based on a stock price of $130.50. The current ratio is between the median and high ratios of the 10 year median ratios. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Book Value per Share Ratio of 3.47. The current P/B Ratio is 4.00 based on a stock price of $130.50, Book Value of $2684M and Book Value per Share of $32.61. The current ratio is 15% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get a 10-year median Price/Cash Flow per Share Ratio of 16.45. The current P/CF Ratio is 15.82 based on Cash Flow per Share estimate for 2024 of $8.25, Cash Flow of $6789M and a stock price of $130.50. The current ratio is 4% below the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable and below the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.69%. The current dividend yield is 1.47% based on dividends of $1.87 and a stock price of $130.50. The current dividend yield is 13% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

I get an historical median dividend yield of 1.58%. The current dividend yield is 1.47% based on dividends of $1.87 and a stock price of $130.50. The current dividend yield is 7% below the historical median dividend yield. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively reasonable but above the median.

The 10-year median Price/Sales (Revenue) Ratio is 1.61. The current P/S Ratio is 2.24 based on Revenue estimate for 2024 of $4,801M, Revenue per Share of $58.34 and a stock price of $130.50. The current ratio is 39% above the 10 year median ratio. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively expensive.

Results of stock price testing is that the stock price could be still reasonable, but in the top of the reasonable range. The P/S Ratio testing does not support this and suggests that the stock price is expensive, but it is the only test to suggest this. Most of the rest of the testing says that the stock price is reasonable, but above the median.

When I look at analysts’ recommendations, I find Strong Buy (3), Buy (3), and Hold (3). The consensus would be a Buy. The 12 month stock price consensus is $135.80 with a high of $145.00 and low of $125.00. The consensus price of $135.80 implies a total return of 5.53% with 4.06% from capital gains and 1.47% from dividends.

Not all analysts like this stock on Stock Chase . One analyst said last year that the company has been stock in consolidations for 3 years. Stock Chase gives this stock 3 stars out of 5. It is on all the dividend lists that I follow. Andrew Button on Motley Fool reviews this stock. Amy Legate-Wolfe on Motley Fool thinks this is a current great buy. The company put out a Press Release about their 2023 results.

Simply Wall Street via Yahoo Finance put out a positive review of this stock. Simply Wall Street gives this stock 3 and one half stars out of 5. They list no warnings.

Toromont Industries Ltd is a Canadian industrial company. The company operates two business segments: Equipment Group and CIMCO. The larger segment by revenue is Equipment Group. The company operates majorly in Canada and derives a smaller portion of sales from the United States of America and other regions. Its web site is here Toromont Industries Ltd .

The last stock I wrote about was about was Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (TSX-AD, OTC-ALARF) ... learn more. The next stock I will write about will be Supremex Inc (TSX-SXP, OTC-SUMXF) ... learn more on Monday, April 15, 2024 around 5 pm.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only and is not to provide investment advice. I am not a licensed professional investment advisor. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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